391
FXUS64 KLZK 111723
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1223 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry conditions are expected across the state today as H500 NW flow
will remain in place atop sfc ridging. Temps will be a bit above
seasonal average along with Td values in the mainly in the 50s F.
Sky conditions will remain mostly clear initially with mid/high
level clouds expected to increase throughout the day.

Changes are expected on Sunday as the flow aloft will shift out of
the SW ahead of a mid-level cyclone moving east across the
Central/Southern Plains. At the sfc, ridging will begin to shift
eastward which will allow low level flow will out of the S with
dewpoints on the rise.

A developing sfc low with advancing warm front and trailing cold
front will approach the state from the west. Several pieces of
shortwave energy will traverse the SW flow toward the state.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread
the area from SW to NE Sun-Sun night. A plume of PW values in
excess of 1.50" is expected to lift north into southern parts of
the state Sunday night. When combined with an expected increase in
the LLJ across similar areas, there is some concern for locally
heavy rain to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern will occupy much of the workweek across
the Natural State. Beginning the workweek, an upper lvl closed low
develops into a positively tilted trof that approaches the Natural
State. In cohesion with the upper lvl feature, a sfc low pressure
system with a lifting warm front and trailing cold front will be
nearing the state on Monday and moving across the state during the
day on Tuesday. Expect rain and isolated thunderstorms during this
period of Monday and Tuesday with several opportunities for
rainfall across the state.

WEDNESDAY:

An upper lvl ridge builds over the Natural State during the day on
Wednesday as a sfc high pressure center meander across the region
providing most of the state one day of relief from showers and
thunderstorms. Expect dry conditions for most of the state as
Arkansas will be perfectly placed between two low pressure systems:
one departing the region and another moving toward the state from
the west.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY:

An upper lvl positively tilted trof approaches the state in tandem
with the combination of sfc features in the form of a warm front
draped across the Gulf Coast of the Deep South region of the CONUS
and a low pressure center with a cold front moves near the state
from the northwest which will move across the state during the day
on Friday. Expect the return of shower and thunderstorm chances to
bring an end to the workweek.

In terms of temperatures over the long-term forecast period with
respect to both daily low and high temperatures, expect near average
to slightly above average temperatures compared to climatological
normals for this time of the year.

At the current time, the threat of severe weather is low, but an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible during the
unsettled stretch during the week. Stay tuned to future forecast
discussions as we continue to nail down specifics.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

For the 18Z TAFs...

VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Light and variable winds throughout the day today will
become light and southeasterly tomorrow. Also tomorrow, a cirrus
deck is expected over much of the state. No threat to VFR
conditions is expected through tomorrow afternoon.

Cavanaugh

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  82  62  76 /   0  10  50  90
Camden AR         61  77  62  79 /  10  20  70  70
Harrison AR       55  78  58  74 /   0  20  70  90
Hot Springs AR    61  79  61  78 /   0  10  80  70
Little Rock   AR  63  82  64  78 /   0  10  70  80
Monticello AR     64  81  64  80 /   0  10  70  80
Mount Ida AR      60  78  61  78 /  10  20  80  80
Mountain Home AR  54  80  59  74 /   0  10  60  90
Newport AR        59  82  63  76 /   0  10  50  80
Pine Bluff AR     62  81  63  79 /   0  10  70  80
Russellville AR   59  81  61  77 /   0  10  70  80
Searcy AR         59  81  61  76 /   0  10  60  90
Stuttgart AR      63  81  64  78 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...66