National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLZK 271048
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
548 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 2 AM CDT, a large complex of showers and thunderstorms have
been moving across the far eastern flank of the state to the east
and are beginning to make their way across the Mississippi River
into Tennessee and Mississippi. A few other non-severe complexes of
storms have began to develop across western Arkansas and are
traveling eastward.

TODAY:

The trifecta of an upper lvl trof over the Southwestern region of
the CONUS, a robust 80 to 90+ knot jet axis which will traverse
through the base of the trof, and a parameter space at the sfc
occupied by a deepening sfc low pressure center across the
OKlahoma/Texas Panhandle/southwestern Kansas region with an
attendant southward extending cold front/dry line and northeastward
extending stationary boundary across Kansas and Iowa will allow a
warm, unstable, and moisture-rich airmass to create a near storm
environment which will present a moderate risk for severe weather
off to the west of Arkansas across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas where
all modes of severe weather will be likely on Saturday into Saturday
night.

Closer to home across Arkansas, rain and thunderstorms will be
possible statewide, but will lack the ingredients overall on
Saturday to present a significant widespread severe threat;
however with that being mentioned, a few strong to severe storms
will be possible throughout the day, especially later Saturday
afternoon along and northwest of a line on the I-30 corridor from
Texarkana to Little Rock and continuing along and northwest of a
line from along the Highway 167 corridor from Little Rock to
Searcy to Walnut Ridge to Corning. Expect isolated showers and
thunderstorms statewide on Saturday, but a greater concentration
of convection will be noted across western Arkansas with a few
storms producing damaging wind gusts and large hail possible.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT:

The sfc low pressure center will transition northeast into central
Kansas and the attendant boundaries of a southward extending cold
front and northeastward extending stationary boundary will open up a
parameter space across Arkansas which will be favorable for all
modes of severe weather. In the early morning hours of Sunday,
likely strong to severe convection will be moving from Oklahoma into
Arkansas. The greater threat for severe weather on Sunday will be as
this activity moves out of the CWA and most of the state, especially
the western 2/3rds of Arkansas will be able to become unstable
despite the morning thunderstorm activity that will travel from west
to east across the state.

At the moment, all modes of severe weather will be possible on
Sunday from damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes
across the state. The magnitude of how much of each mode of severe
weather is still in question as a multitude of CAMS solutions are
presenting uncertainty. However, CAMS have agreed that the shear or
SRH will be in place and plentiful across western and central
Arkansas with large looping hodographs that will necessary for the
development of rotating supercells. The parameter which remains in
question at the current time is just how much instability or MUCAPE
will be present across state and if storm mode remains discrete with
supercells presenting a threat of tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds or the other possibility of clusters or lines of
storms which would still present a limited, isolated tornado threat,
but be more likely to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Regardless of which outcome of storm mode and which hazards become
dominant on Sunday into Sunday Night... Arkansas will need to be
vigilant and have their severe weather plans ready to put into
action at a moment`s notice along with having multiple ways to
receive the latest watches and/or warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Perturbed upper flow wl be in place acrs the Cntrl US early in the
PD, w/ a pair of upper low systems located over the Upper Midwest
and Pac-N/W. Locally, a stagnant warm and moist airmass wl be in
place acrs the Mid-South and greater extent of the FA, w/ a
stationary frnt positioned from W to E acrs the AR/MO border region,
demarcating cooler and drier air acrs Srn MO. Early on in the new
work week, upper level flow is set to weaken and the stronger polar
jet should recede Nwrd towards the US/Canada border. Daily rain
chances Mon and Tues wl be largely diurnal and focused along the
stationary bndry over the Nrn periphery of the state.

Wed thru Thurs, the aforementioned Pac-N/W upper low wl begin to
move Ewrd acrs the Cont Divide, and mean S/Wrly H500 flow wl
overspread the Srn Cntrl US. Lee cyclonic sfc flow is set to develop
along the antecedent sfc bndry. Stronger low-lvl ascent invof the
developing sfc low, and broad WAA/isentropic ascent wl drive more
widespread PoPs Wed and Thurs.

Late in the PD, Fri, long range guidance is indicative of a cdfrnt
moving thru the Plains and approaching the FA. Uncertainties remain
on timing and evolution of the frnt this late in the fcst, however,
another round of widespread rain and thunderstorms along the frnt wl
be possible Fri into Sat if fcst patterns remain consistent over the
next few days.

Expect warm and muggy condns thru the long term PD, w/ daily high
and low temps residing above normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the northern sites
of KHRO and KBPK at the start of the period this Saturday morning
with lowered CIGS to MVFR category. Additionally, these northern
terminals will be impacted by low level wind shear through Saturday
midday. Across all terminals, winds between Saturday morning and
into Sunday will gust in excess of 25 knots. CIGS will lift to VFR
by midday into the early afternoon hours on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     80  65  77  64 /  80  40  60 100
Camden AR         84  67  81  63 /  40  10  50  90
Harrison AR       77  63  72  58 /  70  50  90  70
Hot Springs AR    82  67  78  62 /  70  20  80  90
Little Rock   AR  84  67  81  66 /  70  20  60  90
Monticello AR     86  65  83  67 /  30  10  30  70
Mount Ida AR      80  65  77  61 /  60  30  90  90
Mountain Home AR  78  64  74  60 /  80  40  80  80
Newport AR        84  66  80  65 /  60  30  30  90
Pine Bluff AR     85  66  81  65 /  50  10  40  90
Russellville AR   80  65  77  62 /  80  40  80  80
Searcy AR         82  64  80  64 /  70  30  50  90
Stuttgart AR      84  66  80  66 /  50  20  40  90

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74