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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A rather pedestrian forecast is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico the next couple of days.  WV imagery shows an
upper, dirty ridge over the southwest CONUS, leaving the region
under dry, northwest flow aloft.  At the surface, winds have veered
around to east, and will keep going overnight as return flow
resumes.  This, and lingering cloud cover will keep overnight
minimums from dropping too far, although they`ll still come in below
normal.

Today, subsidence will continue diminishing cloud cover, and return
flow will strengthen, resulting in a significant increase in
thicknesses.  Afternoon highs will increase quite a bit over
yesterday, but unfortunately will remain below normal.

Tonight, a 30+kt LLJ develops and, despite mostly clear skies, this
mixing will keep lows right around normal.

Tuesday, the upper ridge continues to build/strengthen east into the
region, further increasing thicknesses under near-maximum
insolation, yielding afternoon highs a respectable ~ 7-9F above
normal, making it feel more like mid May than late April.  During
the afternoon, a cold front will approach the area, and
convection may nick the far northeast CWA. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and dry subcloud layers suggest a marginally severe
hail/wind threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

By the middle of the week, mid-level ridging becomes centered over
the Great Plains. Temperatures on Wednesday are going to be very
warm, about 5-10 degrees above normal, across the region as a
result. Widespread middle to upper 80s are anticipated with 90s
across the lower elevations of the Pecos and Rio Grande River
Valleys. 100s should also make their return to portions of the Big
Bend. By late Thursday, a negatively-tilted trough should be
traversing the Four Corners and beginning to lift into the central
Great Plains. This does little to change temperatures from Wednesday
but does back up the dryline into portions of the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. As the trough approaches, a couple thunderstorms
may develop by evening along and east of the dryline. Another round
of thunderstorms may additionally develop after dark as the trough
passes to our north with the developing cyclone pushing the dryline
to the east. Any of these thunderstorms could pose a low-end severe
risk given moderate effective shear and instability. Tis` the season
for severe weather after all. Once this trough exits the region,
continued very warm temperatures can be expected. These temperatures
remain mostly unchanged each afternoon with upper 80s and low 90s
remaining common and 100s across portions of the Big Bend. Our next
trough should be approaching the region by Saturday. Currently, the
trajectory of this system appears to limit the westward retreat of
the dryline and this may unfortunately keep much of the region dry.
Isolated thunderstorms do appear to be possible, mainly over the
western Low Rolling Plains, at this juncture. While this is beyond
the long-term forecast period, it can be noted that a more active
weather pattern is starting to take shape in the ensembles to close
out April and begin May as long-wave troughing develops across the
West. While exact details are unknown, like the westward extent of
moisture, it should be something to watch as we begin our peak
severe weather season.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Low clouds have mostly cleared out this afternoon and VFR should
prevail for the TAF period. A low cloud deck approaches east of
MAF/FST tomorrow morning, but not included with this issuance.
Southerly to southeasterly winds continue with gusts decreasing
after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               52  89  58  88 /   0  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 50  92  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   52  86  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            53  92  58  92 /   0  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    47  90  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  86  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  89  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   52  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     52  94  58  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...93