Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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584 FXUS64 KMAF 301945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 For the rest of today and into tonight, there is little change to the forecast. Current observations show the dryline has now mixed(moved) east of Midland/Odessa where dewpoints to the west are in the 30s and 40s and to the east are in the 60s. Isolated storms, some becoming severe, look to develop this afternoon and move to the east into tonight. Damaging winds and large hail remain the main threats with this evening`s activity. The dryline migrates back to the west tonight with better moisture return across eastern zones and ends up settling against the higher terrain near Carlsbad in New Mexico southward towards the Davis Mountain Foothills. Forecast soundings continue to show ample instability on the order of 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE, steep lapse rates (7-8C/km+), and some shear(20-30kts). The main threats with any severe storms that afternoon/evening will be damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two will be possible as outflow from neighboring cells could augment the low level environment. Hi- resolution guidance continues to be in agreement on timing of CI around 20-21z (3-4pm) Wednesday afternoon. Activity will move to the east and out of the area around or just after 1-2z(8-9pm). With the dryline moving back to the west tonight, lows end up in the upper 50s to 60s for most as moisture and low clouds prevent efficient cooling. Highs on Wednesday end up in the low to mid 90s to the west of the dryline and in the upper 80s to the east. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Thursday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front will be moving through the Texas Panhandle, and the dryline is forecast to extend from north central Eddy County southeast to Fort Stockton, southwest through the Big Bend. Latest models stall the front just outside the CWA which, given the timing, seems entirely reasonable w/diurnal heating taken into account. Instead, increasing westerlies will mix the dryline east of the area by late afternoon, and downslope warming will keep afternoon highs AOA Wednesday`s--around 5-7F above normal. Thursday night, the front backdoors the northeast, helping to retreat the dryline back west. Friday through Sunday, a cool spell sets in under continued southwest flow aloft, with highs each day ranging from near normal to 2-3F above. By 12Z Saturday, full moisture recovery is forecast, w/the dryline backed up to the western CWA border. A shortwave is forecast to arrive Saturday afternoon, initiating convection along/east of the dryline and offering perhaps the bast chances of precipitation this forecast. Long-range models depict mid-lvl lapse rates and deep-layer shear sufficient to pose a severe weather threat, but this will all change between now and then. A secondary cold front backdoors the northeast Saturday night, maintaining convective chances eastern zones through Sunday. Monday and Tuesday remain wildcards, as long-range models are in quite the disagreement handling the next upper trough. By 00Z Tuesday, the GFS ejects it from the PacNW into Canada, and is much cooler, whereas the ECMWF/CMC aim for the Central Plains, and are considerably warmer. DESI cluster analysis suggests the GFS is the outlier, and prefers the warmer ECMWF solution. That said, temperatures Monday/Tuesday should be ~ 7-9F above normal, and grids after Sunday afternoon should remain dry. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR remains through the TAF period with the exception of MAF where MVFR CIGs are likely to return tomorrow morning. Winds southerly to southwesterly with occasional gusts. FST may also see low clouds, but for now not including with issuance. Shower and storm development expected after 20-21z with FST/MAF and points east seeing the best potential for impacts. Confidence on storm location is low, thus not mentioned in TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Critical relative humidity is forecast every day this forecast to the west of the dryline. The main factor dictating critical fire weather conditions will be 20-ft winds. Wednesday, critical RH is forecast to the west of a KHOB-KINK-KE38- Rio Grande Village line. However, the only place increased 20-ft winds will be coincident with this critical RH will be the Guadalupes/Sacramento Foothills and adjacent plains. thus, we`ll upgrade the watch to a warning. Thursday, critical 20-ft winds look to be a little more widespread as westerlies increase, mixing the dryline farther east, as well as single-digit RH. Attm, the stronger 20-ft winds look to buzz the higher elevations only, so delineating critical fire weather areas is a little trickier, and we`ll leave this to later shifts to decide. A cold front Thursday will offer a respite from critical fire weather through the weekend, as cooler temperatures/higher RH are expected. Monday/Tuesday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico could be back in the fryin` pan as highs soar back to above-normal and critical RH returns, along with increased 20-ft winds. However, much of this will depend on how much rainfall, and where, betides over the weekend. Stay tuned... && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 89 64 92 / 10 40 30 0 Carlsbad 55 94 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 69 88 66 96 / 10 30 10 0 Fort Stockton 64 92 61 93 / 10 40 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 58 84 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 57 91 56 88 / 0 10 10 0 Marfa 51 87 51 84 / 0 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 65 89 64 92 / 10 30 20 0 Odessa 66 90 64 92 / 10 30 20 0 Wink 62 95 61 94 / 0 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...93