Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 171946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171946
TXZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171946Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible in central Texas this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...The day-cloud RGB band from GOES-16 shows agitated
cumulus through the upper clouds along a moisture boundary moving
north through central Texas. SPC mesoanalysis shows some CIN in the
vicinity, but with additional heating/moistening, expect a mostly
uncapped environment within the next 1 to 2 hours. Forcing in the
region is weak, but convergence along this boundary (evident in
moisture convergence on SPC mesoanalysis) may be sufficient to break
the cap. If any storms develop, the mode will be supercellular given
55 knot of effective shear and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Long, straight
hodographs will support splitting supercells. Given the lack of
greater forcing, expect the threat to remain isolated to only one or
two storms with the threat waning near sunset as the boundary layer
cools.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30150004 30480011 30870009 31259978 31869893 32099749
            31419712 30469750 29999816 30109920 30150004
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