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000
ACUS11 KWNS 181709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181708
ILZ000-MOZ000-181915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...parts of central and southern Missouri into western
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 181708Z - 181915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is forecast across the
central Missouri vicinity this afternoon, spreading into western
Illinois with time.  WW issuance is likely to be required in the
next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a cold front
extending southwestward from a low southeast of Kansas City, across
far southeastern Kansas, and a warm front extending eastward across
central Missouri.  The warm front continues to move slowly
northward, at the northern edge of a moist (60s dewpoints) boundary
layer.

In the wake of a well-defined, southeastward-moving gravity wave,
preceding the frontal zone by about 100 miles, clearing in the cloud
cover will continue to allow diurnal heating of the moistening
boundary layer.  Resulting moderate destabilization through the
afternoon will support gradual development of storms -- initially in
proximity to both frontal zones.  With time, CAMs suggest some
warm-sector/pre-frontal storm development, with any such storm more
likely to exhibit supercell structures, given a background kinematic
environment supportive of updraft rotation.  Along with locally
damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two, large hail near
or in excess of golf-ball size would be possible.

However, more widespread severe risk may preferentially evolve with
upscale-growing convection near the low and trailing cold front.
Eventually, a broken line of storms is anticipated, accompanied by
potential for more widespread damaging winds, along with hail and
perhaps a QLCS tornado or two as it moves eastward across eastern
Missouri and eventually into Illinois.

..Goss/Mosier.. 04/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38309410 39019288 39389094 39858891 38388828 37518923
            37379383 37839429 38309410