Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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196 FXUS62 KMFL 010538 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 138 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 No major changes to the forecast as the previous philosophy is working well. Fog is still in the forecast for tonight with an inland focus. Several areas have seen heavy rainfall today, which could provide some surface-based moisture for fog formation. This will have to be monitored in case additional updates are needed overnight to account for this in more areas of South Florida. Otherwise, the convection is going as anticipated with a weakening trend expected over the coming hours as the sea breezes retreat back to the coast. Some activity could linger over the coastal waters overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 An unsettled couple of days are expected across South FL. A shortwave trough is expected to cross the area today and then sit just east of the area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface trough that was sitting across the east coast metro this morning will slowly drift to the west throughout the course of today. SCT showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening, with the highest PoPs over interior South FL, however chances will remain along the coasts as well. Despite the trough axis moving east of the area overnight into tomorrow morning, residual moisture will linger across the area resulting in more SCT showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Main threat over the next couple days will be for locally heavy rain. While widespread flooding is not expected, PWAT values of 1.8-1.9 inches will result in high rainfall rates, and a quick 1- 2 inches per hour is possible in spots which could lead to some isolated urban flooding. Winds tonight over the interior are expected to be nearly calm, so some patchy fog is possible in the typical locations across the Everglades, around the lake, and interior SW FL. High temps this afternoon will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s across SW FL. A mild evening is expected with overnight lows ranging from the middle 60s around the lake to lower 70s close to the coasts. Temps will nudge higher a couple degrees on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across the east coast metro, to around 90 over interior SW FL. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 As we move into the latter half of the week, the trough will make it`s exit eastward into the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge gradually moves into the Southeast. With easterly flow and remnant moisture, there is a chance for isolated to scattered light showers on Thursday. However, through the majority of the long term, a weak body of surface high pressure will have the main influence on the conditions over the Peninsula, thus keeping it drier and warm. The high will be situated over the western Atlantic which will lead to consistent easterly flow near the surface. With the E/SE flow, there will be a chance (15-30%) for isolated to scattered showers daily, due to modest moisture advection and pooling. Showers and isolated storms could be enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes. However, in the current ensemble outlook, widespread heavy rainfall, or significant instability, does not appear to be a threat for the long term. Caution will need to be taken with any slow-moving rain showers due to sensitivity to flash flooding, especially when the grounds are saturated. Temperatures will be near to just above-normal through the extended period. The highs will be rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across the SW and interior, while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 132 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Isolated to scattered shower activity will be possible near the east coast terminals overnight and into the morning hours. Some thunderstorms may develop early this afternoon near the east coast terminals before shifting towards the interior later in the afternoon. Light winds through the overnight hours will increase out of ESE late Wednesday morning. At KAPF, winds increase early this afternoon out of the SW as a Gulf breeze develops. && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 SCT showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area waters the next couple of days which could lead to locally hazardous marine conditions. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected with E/SE winds 10-15 kts over the Atlantic waters and around 10 kts in the Gulf. A light westerly wind is expected over the Gulf waters during the afternoon on Wednesday. Seas generally 2- 4 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A high risk of rip currents remains across the Atlantic beaches through this evening due to persistent easterly flow. The high risk will remain across the Palm Beaches through Wednesday due to a lingering swell, while conditions slightly improve at Broward and Miami-Dade beaches as the SE flow weakens, however an elevated threat will remain through much of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 73 86 73 / 40 20 20 10 West Kendall 85 71 86 70 / 50 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 85 73 86 73 / 40 20 20 10 Homestead 83 72 83 73 / 40 20 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 85 74 85 73 / 40 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 85 73 85 73 / 40 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 84 70 85 71 / 40 20 20 10 Boca Raton 85 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10 Naples 85 71 87 70 / 20 20 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...CWC