960
FXUS62 KMHX 021411
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1011 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another
cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing multiple
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 1011 AM Thu...No big changes needed with am update. All
fog has burned off mid morning as previously forecasted.
Utilized hourly HRRR to capture hourly sea breeze propagation
this afternoon. Lowered max T`s for immediate coastal locales by
a degree or two, but rest of fcst is on track.

Prev disc...As of 7:20 AM Thursday...The Dense Fog Advisory
remains in effect area wide until 9 AM but satellite imagery
shows the fog starting to dissipate, so the advisory may be able
to be canceled early.

Previous Discussion...As of 4 AM Thursday...A
Dense Fog Advisory is in effect area wide until 9 AM for fog
limiting visibility to 1 mile or less. After the fog mixes out
later this morning, ridging will move overhead today. This will
send high temps to nearly 90 across the coastal plain while the
beaches stay in the upper 70s. Winds will be light and variable
today until the afternoon seabreeze pushes through. No shower or
storm development is expected along the seabreeze given the
limited moisture in the column.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Tonight will be similar to last night.
Lows will bottom out around 60 and another round of fog is in
the cards. Cloud cover will hang around and winds will be light
to calm out of the SSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions
become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain
chances on Sunday

Friday...A passing shortwave embedded within the ridge will cause a
slight bump in winds and an increase in cloud cover. Additionally, a
dry cold front to our north will dip south into our northern
counties. Temps will reach their warmest marks of the week before
the cold front moves through with the coastal plain topping out in
the upper 80s and the beaches in the mid 70s.

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US
Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs
and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled
conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday
morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang
around through the period due to the lingering nature the front,
but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week
(25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday`s high temps will be
a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold
front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s
beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area
Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and
remnants of the weekend`s front/SFC trough will lead to some
precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to
reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 7:20 AM Thursday...The widespread dense fog that covered
the area overnight is starting to dissipate. All TAF sites are
expected to return to VFR within an hour or two and stay VFR for
the rest of the day. Fog is possible again tonight with guidance
hinting at LIFR VIS for EWN and OAJ, but I kept the forecast at
MVFR for now to see how things trend through the day.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next
week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with
Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower
CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Winds
will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the day but
will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they transition to
southerly and then eventually southwesterly by tomorrow morning.
Seas will be about 2 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through
the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms
could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the
best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to
the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south
into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10
kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape
Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas
pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be
ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas
remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...CEB/OJC