301
FXUS62 KMHX 290204
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front may then impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 2200 Sunday...Typical cold spots in Duplin Co have
decoupled and their temps have dropped, prompting minor
adjustments. I didn`t go full decouple everywhere for the rest
of the night as winds are expected to mix in and out through the
overnight. This does however increase the chance of fog
development over SWern portions of the FA, so have added patchy
fog to the forecast for these areas.

Previous disco as of 400 PM Sun...Very quiet weather persists
across eastern NC, which remains centered underneath a broad
upper level ridge and Atlantic high pressure anchored to the
east. Thick deck of strato-cu to our west is beginning to break
up as drier air works its way into the picture, but it has been
enough to keep temperatures suppressed in the mid 70s while
north of Highway 64 upper 70s to low 80s prevail.

Little change in this pattern is expected through the short
term. Southwesterly winds will diminish but not quite decouple
tonight as weak front to our north keeps the gradient pinched.
Combined with ever-increasing low-level thicknesses, lows
tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last - mid to upper
50s inland, around 60 along the coast. If any areas do decouple,
it will be likely along the coast south of Highway 70. Combined
with clear skies, some low (10% chance) potential exists for
patchy fog to develop early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sun...Ridge and surface high will move little
tomorrow, remaining the dominant weather features. Column will
be noticeably drier than yesterday as PWATs hit a minimum of
under an inch, and expect little if any cloud cover through the
day apart from some thin cirri. With full insolation and higher
low-level thicknesses, temperatures will rise around another 5
degrees. Widespread low to mid-80s expected inland, except 70s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs
reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along
the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on
Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to
approach from the west.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area
on Wednesday, and now looks to cross the area around peak
heating. Higher confidence of shower and thunderstorm
development is beginning to take shape and have increased PoPs
during the afternoon to around 50%. Still, any severe threat
looks to be minimal with little to no shear present. Thursday
looks drier relative to Wednesday but another slight chance
(20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in
the western counties. Despite this moving through the area,
temperatures will remain high during this time topping out in
the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (25-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 1900 Sunday...The probability of sub-VFR flight cats over
the next 24 hours is low, but none zero.

High pressure sitting off the southeast coast continues to ridge
into the southeastern CONUS this afternoon while broad mid-level
ridge sits overhead. Skies clear after sunset tonight and
remain so through tomorrow as column continues to dry.

Steady southwesterly winds this afternoon (with a few isolated
gusts to 15 kt) will subside overnight but still hover around
4-5 kt as weak front approaches from the north. This should
inhibit any fog formation, but if decoupling occurs would not be
surprised to see some reports of MIFG - most likely south of a
line from EWN to DPL. Have included a tempo MVFR VIS group for
OAJ, where RH is forecast to be the highest, in the early
morning hours.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...The expected synoptic weather pattern
carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week,
with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance
will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 400 PM Sun...Benign marine conditions in place for area
waters this afternoon as high pressure remains anchored
offshore. Regional observations show broad southwesterly flow of
10-15 kt with seas around 3-4 feet. Guidance continues to hint
at a localized surge of 15-20 kt with some infrequent gusts to
25 kt for the northern waters and Pamlico Sound with the
tightening thermal gradient, but this will be too brief to
warrant any headlines.

Weather pattern changes little tomorrow with predominantly
southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt expected through Monday. Like
today, there will likely be a thermal gradient tomorrow
resulting in 15-20 kt winds across the northern waters and
sounds, with a risk of infrequent 25 kt gusts. Seas remain at
3-4 feet through the period.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early next week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/CEB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...RTE/CEB
MARINE...RTE/MS