Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240152
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
952 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low and cold front will impact the area this weekend.
High pressure builds in early next week. Another coastal low is
possible mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM Sat...The front and assoc precip has moved offshore
and northerly winds are ramping up late this evening. A
secondary low will strengthen along the front offshore tonight
and Sunday, keeping a very strong gradient across the area. Wind
Advisories continue for the immediate coast with northerly
gusts 45-50 mph, peaking late tonight into Sunday. Scattered
light showers ongoing along and ahead of the front this
afternoon, will grad shift off the coast over the next few hours
with cooler and drier air filtering into the area. Lows will
fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sat...Sfc low will strengthen off the coast Sunday
as it becomes vert stacked, as high pressure ridges in from the
north. Despite the mostly sunny skies, expect a much cooler and
brisk Sunday as CAA continues. Low level thickness values
support highs in the 50s, though highs may not make it out of
the upper 40s for the northern Outer Banks. Wind Advisories
continue for the immediate coast with NNE wind gusts 45-50 mph.
Away from the immediate coast, it will be breezy during this
time as well, but winds should remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Canadian high pressure extends southward
over the eastern seaboard Sunday night and remains in control
into Tuesday. This weekend`s low will linger offshore, keeping
elevated northerly winds in place along the Outer Banks into
early next week and promoting ongoing coastal flooding and beach
hazard concerns for areas particularly north of Cape Hatteras -
see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for details.

Next round of inclement weather will be mid to late week.
Deepening low pressure over the central plains in response to a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will drag a slow-moving cold
front towards the Carolinas, eventually stalling over the area.
The frontal boundary will likely have an increase of clouds and
some modest shower activity although best lift will be displaced
well to our west. Greater concern is a second s/w trough
forecast to pivot across the Gulf states and become negatively
tilted, which will drive robust cyclogenesis along the surface
boundary.

The devil remains in the details. Ensemble guidance continues to
trend towards the stalled front/coastal low solution (although
a few members still advertise a clean frontal passage), but
considerable spread in timing and track of the system remain.
Still, another round of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal
impacts are possible by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 930 PM Sat...The front has moved offshore and skies have
become mostly clear but could see occasional mid level clouds
this evening. Winds are fairly light this evening but will see
northerly winds ramping up late this evening and after midnight
with gusts around 25-30 kt at the TAF sites and 35-45 kt along
the coast. Gusty northerly winds could result in crosswind
impacts for EWN runway 14R/32L Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through Tuesday
as high pressure builds in from the north, but strong northerly
winds will persist particularly for coastal locales.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 930 PM Sat...Very dangerous marine conditions will
continue for an extended period of time. The front has moved
offshore and we had a brief lull earlier this evening but
northerly winds are beginning to ramp back up, currently around
15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Secondary low will strengthen
along the front offshore tonight and Sunday, keeping a very
strong gradient across the waters. Gale force winds will develop
across the waters across the waters, sounds and much of the
inland rivers after midnight and continue through Sunday...with
seas cont at 10-17 ft north of Lookout and 7-12 ft south.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 355 AM Sat...Dangerous marine conditions will continue
through the long term period. Canadian high pressure builds over
the Carolinas from the north, but with low pressure continuing
to meander offshore strong northeasterly flow will be slow to
ease. Strongest winds will be Sunday night with gusts up to 40
kt especially across portions of Raleigh Bay, but 25+ kt wind
gusts will plague area waters through Monday night.

The persistent northerly fetch will keep seas dangerously high,
particularly north of Cape Hatteras. Swell of 10-15 ft with
periods of 13-14 seconds will persist through Tuesday night
here, while across Raleigh Bay, seas will be closer to 8-12
feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 930 PM Sat...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl) remain
in effect though late Monday night for ocean side locations
north of Cape Hatteras and southern portions of the Pamlico
Sound, Core Sound and lower Neuse River. A Coastal Flood
Advisory (1-2 ft agl) remains in effect for areas adj to the
southern Albemarle Sound and Alligator Rvr for the northerly
surge tonight into Monday.

Dropped CF Advisories for the initial SE wind threat. Now the
threat shifts to the N/NE surge beginning this evening and
peaking into Sunday. Winds will shift to the N tonight through
tomorrow into the 25-35 kt range with higher gusts, with the
coastal flood threat shifting to soundside areas adjacent to the
S/E Pamlico Sound and oceanside areas from Duck to Cape
Lookout. NCDOT now reporting that NC 12 on the northern end of
Ocracoke Island is closed due to ocean overwash and dangerous
driving conditions. Hatteras to Ocracoke ferry service has been
suspended until further notice. Other oceanside areas with
vulnerable dune structure may also be impacted and impassable at
times, esp around high tide.

Have allowed the High Surf Advisory to expire south of Cape
Lookout but will continue for zones between Cape Lookout and
Cape Hatteras through Sunday. Advisory continues for areas
north of Cape Hatteras through Wednesday morning as persistent
northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along the
beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 10-15 feet.

Although details are murkier, another coastal low could impact
the area at the end of the work week with another round of
strong winds and coastal flooding possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NCZ045>047.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ047-196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ094-194-196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-230.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CQD/SK/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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