Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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653
FXUS63 KMPX 261948
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
248 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Sky should clear to the east early with winds diminishing. THe
next frontal system is fast on its heals and will sweep through
late tonight to the northwest and exit the southeast CWA friday
morning. Strong northwest winds expected in its wake with just a
small chance of showers mainly over northwest WI region.
Temperatures will warm close to readings of today/mid 50s to some
lower 60s to the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The longer term trends continue to show warming ahead of the
frontal system that is currently forecast to move through around
Tuesday.

Ahead of the front, southerly flow increases Sunday and a weak
short wave lifts northeast with the surface warm front Sunday
night and Monday. Instability/Moisture increases ahead of the
warm front and may be enough to generate some convection along the
LLJ. Temperatures should warm through the the 60s to some lower
70s possible Sunday and into the 70s for Monday, which looks like
the warmest day of the period.

The warm front shifts off to the east Monday with the front
moving through Tuesday. Will continue low chance PoP for thunder
with the system at this time. The unsettled pattern will continue
into the later part of next week but we should see drying develop
as upper ridging/warmer air tries to return. The GFS is most
bullish in driving the western CONUS ridge east into next weekend.
The ECMWF not so much as it retains more of the eastern CONUS
trough and northwest flow across the western Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Looks to be a mainly dry frontal passage will the front exiting
the area early this afternoon. Wind will be gusty N-NW behind
front through the afternoon, diminishing this evening. Weak ridge
passes through with another cold front dropping into the area
Friday morning. This will turn to the s-sw winds back to N-NW and
gusty once again. Just some mid/high level clouds exiting the
area this afternoon with more mid/high level clouds moving in
later tonight from the northwest. May see some cumulus clouds in
the wake of the cold front Friday, but atmosphere still remains
dry.

KMSP...
VFR trend with gusty NW winds this afternoon, becoming s-sw and
light overnight and then NW and gusty into late Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI EVENING...VFR. Winds N 10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds N 5 kts or less bcmg SE.
SUN...VFR. SSE Winds Increasing 15G25kts late.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Will leave Red Flag Warning going with strong northwest wind to 40
mph over parts of west central MN. Lowest RH level seen has been
26 percent. Still have strong subsidence moving through that
region per latest satellite water vapor imagery. Still could see
RH levels dropping off around 25% by late afternoon. Winds are
expected to diminish quite rapidly after 7 PM.

Windy conditions will develop in the wake of the next cold front
Friday morning to the west and region wide in the afternoon. May
not be as strong s today and RH levels drop off through the upper
20s to lower 30s percent. Continues the elevated fore weather
conditions for Friday afternoon. Low RH levels continue into
Saturday but winds will be light under surface ridging. We will
have to monitor Sunday afternoon as winds increase again ahead of
the frontal system developing to the west. RH levels are expected
to drop off into the upper 20s/low 30s percent again and it will
be modulated by how quickly we can advect higher dewpoints into
the area.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ041-042-
     047>049-054>057-064-065-073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE
FIRE WEATHER...DWE



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