Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 231150
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy snow and major travel impacts look likely area-wide
  Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Snowfall rates of
  1-2"/hour are possible Sunday afternoon and evening,
  especially across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Late Sunday night into Monday, snow transitions to rain from
  southern Minnesota through the Twin Cities & western Wisconsin.
  This will limit storm-total snowfall amounts across these
  areas.

- Heavy snow continues through Monday night for western and
  north- central Minnesota. Light snow lingers over the entire
  area through Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds late Monday night
  through Tuesday will likely lead to travel impacts from
  drifting snow across western Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

TODAY...Clear skies and what snowpack remains from yesterday has
allowed temperatures to fall into the teens early this morning.
Highs will top out in the low to mid 30s area wide with cloud cover
increasing through the day. Winds will be light, making today truly
the calm before the storm. Our long awaited winter storm will start
getting its act together over the Rockies during the day with
forcing increasing Saturday afternoon well out ahead of the low,
setting the stage for a initial band of light snow across the
Dakotas and southwestern Minnesota. However, with plenty of dry
air still in place, it will likely be late evening before much
of anything reaches the ground.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY... Up to an inch of snow is possible across southern
Minnesota by sunrise Sunday. This initial band will weaken as
it gets into central Minnesota, but will gradually fill in as
the main event gets going to the southwest. Snow will increase
in coverage and intensity through mid/late morning. For Sunday,
snow is expected to be the main precip type for all. As the
surface low approaches the area, easterly winds will increase
through Sunday morning with gusts of 25-35 MPH expected during
the afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1- 2"/hour are likely across
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the area with the
strongest forcing/WAA during the afternoon. Significant
visibility reductions are expected with the strong winds and
heavy snowfall rates. SLR will be 10-12:1 initially before
decreasing to 10:1 or lower by Sunday evening, making for a very
heavy, wet snow, as one would expect in late March.

Regarding headlines, we expanded the Winter Storm Watch into
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, mainly to account for the
gusty winds and high snowfall rates Sunday. Further north, went
ahead and upgraded our northwestern counties to a Winter Storm
Warning through Monday. This region, roughly along and west of a
line from Madison to Mora, is where we have the highest confidence
in seeing snow as the dominant precip type throughout the event and
thus the highest snowfall totals. However, I want to stress that
while totals of greater than 12" are not out of the question, the
likelihood of seeing it all on the ground and measuring at 12"
are low. This snow will be very wet and will compact quite a bit
in a short period of time. Unless you are taking very careful
and diligent measurements every couple of hours, please do not
expect your snowfall total and/or depth to be in the
neighborhood of the high end numbers that some models are
spitting out.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...Things get complicated as we head into Sunday
evening with strong WAA leading to precip type issues overnight for
southern Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin. Forecast
soundings show a warm nose working into southern Minnesota as early
as 00z Monday. This would lead to a change over to rain for the
duration of the event and would eat away at whatever snow managed to
accumulate during the day Sunday. This warm nose is the biggest
headache when it comes to forecast uncertainty. Depending on how
quickly and how far north/east it advances through Monday will
determine additional snowfall totals and overall snowpack. Latest
trends have it a little further north/west, leading to slightly
lower snowfall amounts from near the Twin Cities south and eastward.
It appears we will also find ourselves in the dry slot for a period
of time Monday afternoon, which has led to an overall decrease in
QPF for south central Minnesota. Again, I want to stress for those
who are measuring snow that any rain on top of snowpack will take a
bite out of it and you will end up with lower totals come Monday
afternoon. Further west where the Winter Storm Warning is in place,
snow should prevail as the main p-type and additional accumulations
of 2-4" are possible.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...Temperatures will fall quickly and strong
northwest winds are expected on the backside of the system as it
pulls away over the Great Lakes. This will allow for a changeover to
snow for all once again Monday night through the day Tuesday with
additional accumulations of 1-3". Very gusty winds across western
Minnesota will lead to blowing and drifting snow overnight through
the morning. Gusts of up to 40-45 MPH are possible across the
Buffalo Ridge with 30-35 MPH gusts spreading eastward through
the day before diminishing Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...With fresh snowpack and cooler air moving in
from the west/northwest Wednesday, expect highs in the low 30s with
overnight lows falling into the single digits by Thursday under
clearing skies. Temperatures will rebound quickly by the end of the
week and should make short work of our late March snowpack. Our
active pattern looks to continue as we head into Friday/next
weekend with additional precip chances on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

VFR conditions today, with snow developing overnight. winds will
become southeast. The snow will generally be MVFR, but could
have occasional IFR visbys. The heaviest snow will arrive on
Sunday.

KMSP...VFR conditions today, with snow developing this evening
and overnight. Expect steady snow, with visbys generally 2 to 4
miles. The snow will become heavier Sunday morning, with LIFR
conditions expected during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/LIFR +SN likely. Rates 1 to 2 in/hr. Wind E
25G30-40kts
MON...IFR Likely. Chance LIFR/+SN early. RA/SN mix likely
afternoon- evening.
Wind ENE 15G25-30kts. TUE...IFR/MVFR likely. Chance RA/SN mix
thru afternoon. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Hennepin-
     Isanti-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning
     for Redwood-Renville-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for Goodhue-Steele.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
     night for Pepin-Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB


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