Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282001
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of light wintry precipitation Friday.

- Patchy fog likely overnight, primarily across east-central
  Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.

- Best chance for precipitation Sunday into Monday still looking
  like southern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

As expected, temperatures have remained capped close to freezing
over the snowpack this afternoon despite the strong late-March
sunshine. Meanwhile, temperatures have reached the 40s across
portions of south-central MN where no snowpack was left after
Monday`s rain & melting. Dewpoints are very dry right now, but
expect some snowmelt this afternoon is expected to create a
shallow layer of low- level moisture as the boundary layer
cools after sunset. As a result, patchy fog is likely overnight
into tomorrow morning across rural areas of central Minnesota &
west-central Wisconsin - where winds will be calm and skies are
expected to remain clear overnight.

Warm-air advection and increasing cloud cover begins tonight
across western Minnesota, ahead of an approaching surface low
out of the Dakotas. There is a slight chance that enough
forcing is generated by the low-level warm advection overnight
to generate patchy drizzle over the higher elevations along the
Buffalo Ridge- which would could freeze onto roads & surfaces
given the cold surface temperatures through tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, any measurable precipitation is expected to hold off
until Friday afternoon & evening as better forcing arrives with
the low. Temperatures will be cool enough for a during of light
snow across portions of central Minnesota, & northwest
Wisconsin but elsewhere could see a few hundredths of an inch
of light rain. Patchy freezing drizzle can`t also be ruled out
at times where temperatures are also cold enough for snow to
fall. temperatures will vary widely across the area Friday,
staying in the mid 30s across west-central Minnesota under
widespread cloud cover & the best chances for precipitation.
meanwhile, afternoon temperatures could research 50 across
southern Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin as southerly flow
increases in the warm sector of the surface low.

Temperatures remain warm over the weekend with highs generally
in the mid to upper 30s across western Minnesota and mid to upper
40s elsewhere. There remains a high amount of spread in the
precipition chances for the system still expected to move
through the mid-Mississippi valley during the Sunday-Monday
timeframe. Deterministic models continue to keep the surface low
well to the south of the area, near the IA/MO border, which
keeps any precipitation out of the area expect for possibly far-
southern Minnesota. Meanwhile, ensemble solutions have more of
a northerly extent to the precipitation shield, despite also
showing signal that keeps the surface low south of the area.
Chances for at least some precipitation do look fairly high
across far-southern Minnesota, but we`ll have to keep the
generic ~30% PoPs going elsewhere across the area until more
consistency among solutions is evident. Temperatures look cold
enough for accumulating snow if the precipitation moves through
during the cooler nighttime hours Sunday & Monday night, but
otherwise would fall as rain during the day.

Generally warmer & quieter weather is expected through the rest
of next week as upper level ridging begins building back into
the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Clear skies and VFR conditions continue. SCT-BKN mid-high clouds
will start to move in from the west overnight, gradually lowering
over time. West winds become east across western MN this evening,
with light NE winds in the east. Winds will be out of the ESE
and increase to 10-15 kts late tomorrow morning. Some light
snow is possible at AXN tomorrow morning, but impacts should be
low.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR, chc MVFR/-RA. Wind E 15-20 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind N to NE 5-10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED


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