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000
FXUS63 KMPX 190000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze tonight as temperatures fall into the low 30s.
  More chances the next couple mornings.

- Quiet weather otherwise through the weekend, the next rain
  bearing system arrives early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The last of our round of light showers has pushed through western WI
as of late this morning, with a brief window of sunshine and clearer
skies followed by some agitated cumulus clouds spreading across much
of the area today. Satellite shows a window of clear skies
stretching from Albert Lea to Eau Claire as of around 2pm, with
cumulus clouds a short distance away moving eastwards as prevailing
flow remains out of the west. Winds have remained breezy today with
gusts as high as 30mph out of the west sustained at 15mph, and winds
will remain somewhat breezy overnight but lose the gusts. The main
concern over the next 72 hours will be falling temperatures
overnight which could lead to frost/freeze concerns, as our abnormal
winter with warmer conditions alongside the rain we received earlier
in the week has led to some susceptible vegetation. Temperatures
look to fall into the low 30s and even upper 20s in spots for the
next few mornings, so anyone with sensitive plants already planted
or put outside should look to cover them or move them indoors
through at least Monday morning. Breezy winds should keep us from
seeing temperatures plummet into the 20s everywhere, thus we may
straddle the edge between a frost/freeze especially for the metro
where we typically end up a few degrees warmer.

High pressure will result in quiet conditions otherwise through the
weekend and into early next week ahead of our next rain bearing
system arriving Monday into Tuesday. Rain looks to arrive Monday
afternoon with synoptic forcing in the form of the left exit region
of an upper level jet as a weak but broad mid to upper level trough
looks to occlude and spin across the area. Lower level support in
the form of increasing moisture/warmth due to an 850mb jet will
arrive in tandem, resulting in a period of light to moderate showers
lasting about 18-24 hours before the entire system moves across the
Great Lakes. Right now given the expected moisture and forcing, we
are not expecting anything convective and rain amounts look to be
rather meager, around a tenth to quarter of an inch. One consequence
of this system with return flow shifting to the south later in the
week will be increasing warmth, with above normal low to mid 60s
possible by next weekend. As we head towards the last week of the
month, the trend looks to be towards slightly warmer than normal
temperatures as our normals approach 60 for highs by that point,
with precipitation trends also looking to slightly favor above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The expansive stratocu field at the start of the period will
thin out considerably overnight, but return quickly with some
heating Friday morning, with BKN to OVC VFR skies expected
again on Friday. Also returning during the day on Friday will be
gusty west winds, with gusts of 30-35 kts expected. One concern
to watch for Friday is forecast soundings show the
aforementioned cloud layer being located completely within the
dendritic growth zone and will have near dry adiabatic lapse
rates. In January or February this would result in efficient
production of light snow. However, this environment is in place
over NoDak today and snow reports have been few and far between
for all but northwest NoDak. Given the lack of precip reports
upstream, kept precip mention out of TAFs. Eventually, a
stronger short wave will be approaching central MN at the end of
this period and that`s the point where we may have some better
shower (mostly snow) chances.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG