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000
FXUS63 KMPX 112324
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant warm up on track for this weekend with highs in the
70s and low 80s area wide.

- Soaking rain still expected next week with rainfall amounts of a
half inch or more with a return to normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Another afternoon of diurnal showers with an occasional rumble
of thunder is ongoing, with any more substantial rain over far
southeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin. A few reports of pea
sized hail have come out of some of the stronger cells. This
activity will diminish by sunset with clouds expected to clear
out overnight. Tomorrow will be drier with slightly warmer
temperatures, but the real warm up doesn`t arrive until
Saturday. Southerly flow will advect a wave of unseasonably warm
air across the region. While dew points will also climb, they
won`t be high enough to prevent RH values from falling into the
low 30s. This may lead to some elevated fire weather concerns
through the weekend. A very weak cold front will move through
overnight Saturday, turning winds back to the northwest for
Sunday, but temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday looks to be the warmest (hottest?) day of the period as the
ridge axis moves overhead. Temperatures along the Buffalo Ridge are
forecast to top out in the mid 80s with another day of upper 70s/low
80s elsewhere. Winds will begin to increase on Monday and turn
southeasterly ahead of a strengthening surface low across the
Central Plains. This system will be the focus for next week as it
looks to bring widespread rainfall and gusty winds to Minnesota and
Wisconsin. Rainfall totals of an inch or more are possible Tuesday
through Wednesday. Behind this system, temperatures will fall back
toward normal (mid 50s) through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Scattered showers will continue through 9-10 PM, with isolated
small hail & lightning possible with the strongest cells. Any
showers impacting area terminals will be very brief, and little
or no reduction to visibility is expected, so will convey the
on & off shower potential with a VCSH. Isolated small hail & an
occasional instance of lightning is possible with the strongest
cells.

Skies will begin clearing out overnight, with mostly clear
conditions expected by the morning & continuing through Friday.
Northwest winds will stay breezy through the period, with gusts
around 20 kts overnight increasing up to 25 kts during the day
on Friday.

KMSP...Isolated showers will remain near the terminal through 9
PM. Any downpours will be brief, & an outside chance of very
small hail or lightning can`t be ruled out with the strongest
showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR bcmg MVFR. Chc -RA late. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...ETA