786
FXUS63 KMPX 040600
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
100 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this
evening through Saturday morning.

- Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer
temperatures expected Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed
temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a
few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a
little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface
pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the
west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated
thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but
showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening
through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday
afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been
picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one
from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern
MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5"
while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band
also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in
RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur
during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a
bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are
forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great
with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s)
but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we
progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong,
negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the
Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm
sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending
all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems
from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band
of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night
into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the
Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the
question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero
CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely
dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand
ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating,
widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance
of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds
should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS
ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve
climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains.

After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for
the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs
out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at
least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures
underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain showers will spread across the area this morning, impacting
western MN overnight through sunrise, central & eastern MN
through early to mid-morning, & western WI mid-morning into
early afternoon. Predominately low-end MVFR visibility &
ceilings are expected with the rain, although periods of IFR
conditions are possible. MVFR ceilings will linger for a few
hours after the rain ends, with ceilings eventually rising &
clearing out through the afternoon. Winds will generally be
northerly to northwesterly between 5-10 kts, with some gusts up
to 20kts during the morning through mid-afternoon. WInds drop
below 5 kts after sunset with clear skies overnight.

KMSP...Rain is expected to start between 6-7 AM with visibility
down to 3 miles & ceilings around 1000 ft expected. Brief IFR
conditions are possible during the heaviest rain, more likely
as lower ceilings as opposed to visibility. The rain will end
around noon with MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...ETA
HYDROLOGY...CCS