National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS73 KMPX 141129
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Stanton Prairie...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
629 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Stanton Prairie fire, relative humidity will be in the 60-70
percent range for the first few hours after ignition. Lots of
sunshine today, with the expectation that RH`s will plummet into
the afternoon (low 20s). Very light northwest winds at
ignition will increase to 5-10 mph by late morning, with the
occasional afternoon gust up to 15 mph. Fire weather concerns
remain elevated today due the expected low RH.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 69.
RH..................89 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 6 to 15
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /93300 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (115600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 16 mph shifting to the northwest 20
                    to 23 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............44  48  52  59  62  65  66  68  68  68  69  67
RH..............89  77  66  51  44  35  30  27  26  25  23  24
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   9   10  12  13  14  14  15  14  13  12
20 FT wind gust.10  13  15  17  17  18  20  21  21  21  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.8 1.8 3.6 4.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.4 5.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   12  13  16  20  22  22  22  23  23  22  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 6 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (94800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 21 mph shifting to the north 7
                    to 10 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 8 mph increasing to 8 to 9 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (29000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Tracy Ronnander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410693.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Tracy_ronnander@fws.gov