Text Products for FWS Issued by MPX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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FNUS73 KMPX 210819
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Regal Meadow Rx Burn April 21...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

.DISCUSSION...Clear, dry and breezy conditions will prevail
today. West to northwest winds will increase with sustained
speeds around 15mph with gusts around 20 mph. RH values will
drop to around 20 percent this mid-to-late this afternoon. This
combination of winds and RH values will likely produce elevated
fire weather concerns this afternoon and early evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........31 at ignition...Max 58.
RH..................72 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /4900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /94200 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (91800 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....WID
Weather type....FST
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  33  36  38  45  49  53  54  56  58  58  58
RH..............72  66  61  57  47  39  29  26  24  23  23  23
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  10  12  13  13  14  14  14  13  12
20 FT wind gust.12  13  15  16  18  20  20  20  20  18  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.7 5.0 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  16  18  21  22  22  21  20  20  17
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 12 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (80700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to
                    17 mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon, then
                    slight chance of rain showers late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 64.
RH..................Min 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (73400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Calderone
Requested by...Robert Bale
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411549.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.bale@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
