Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 221110
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Skarpness Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning, for the Skarpness RX burn.
This morning should have a heavy dew with areas of fog. This fog
will burn off eventually, but I think the low clouds/fog will hang
around until late morning. This could affect the ignition time
due to fuel wetness.

Winds will be light and variable all day. There is some confidence in
southerly winds, but weak speeds could cause the direction to change.
This lack of wind is part of the reason why we don`t expect things to
dry out very quickly this morning. If you have any questions, give
us a call at 952-361-6671.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Areas of fog early in the
                    morning.
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Max 79.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-2400 ft AGL increasing to 5800-6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /24700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /36200 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........3 or very low at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............68  71  73  74  76  77  78  79
RH..............65  59  55  53  50  48  47  45
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 5.0 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   7   6   6   5   5
Mixing wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixing wind spd.7   7   7   7   6   6   5   5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100025  30  35  36  31  32  27  28

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning. Chance of showers 20
                    percent.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......6000-7100 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to 14 to 15
                    mph after midnight.
Mixing winds........Southeast 5 to 14 mph increasing to 14 to 15
                    mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3000-33900 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............78     70     63     61     60     58
RH..............47     61     78     81     84     90
20 ft wind......SE 6   E 6    E 6    SE 7   E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....7100   4800   2500   300    300    300
Transport wind..S 5    SE 8   SE 12  SE 14  SE 14  SE 14
Mixing wind.....S 5    SE 8   SE 12  SE 14  SE 14  SE 14
Haines index....4      4      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100029     34     26     3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms. Chance of precipitation 30
                    percent.
Temperature.........Max 82.
RH..................Min 53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2300-3900 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 1300-1800 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph.
Mixing winds........South 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3000-43000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    fair to excellent (25400-70400 knot-ft) late in
                    the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to or low.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............59     65     73     78     82     82
RH..............90     81     66     56     53     53
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 7   SE 9   SE 11  SE 11  SE 11
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1500   2700   3900   2900   1800
Transport wind..SE 14  SE 16  SE 18  S 21   S 22   S 23
Mixing wind.....SE 14  SE 16  SE 18  S 21   S 22   S 23
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      3
SDspl kt-ft/10003      21     43     70     54     36

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810455.0/MPX
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org



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