Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FNUS73 KMPX 251144
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Foster Creek W...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest wind 10 mph becoming westerly by evening. Lowest humidity
around 45 percent. Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop
between 3 PM and 6 PM.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of
                    precipitation 40 percent.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 89.
RH..................92 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 300-1700 ft
                    AGL increasing to 3100-4500 ft AGL late in the
                    morning, then increasing to 6000-7000 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon increasing to 8000-9000
                    ft AGL early in the afternoon decreasing to
                    6100 ft AGL decreasing to 3200 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 20 mph.
Mixing winds........West 14 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /9300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /49900 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (63400
                    knot-ft) late in the morning, then decreasing
                    to good (44400 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............67  69  72  76  79  82  85  87  89  89  88  86
RH..............92  87  79  73  64  58  54  49  46  45  44  47
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.9 1.3 1.7 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 6.1 3.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.20  18  18  17  16  16  15  15  14  14  15  16
Mixing wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Mixing wind spd.20  18  18  17  16  16  15  15  14  14  15  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
SDspl kt-ft/10009   15  22  29  50  71  85  100 105 119 87  45

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of
                    precipitation 40 percent.
Temperature.........Min 63.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Mixing winds........Southwest 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............83     75     69     67     65     63
RH..............50     64     78     81     87     93
20 ft wind......W 6    W 4    SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   SW 4
20 ft wind gust.10     5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..W 16   W 12   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 9
Mixing wind.....W 16   W 12   SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 9
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10004      3      2      2      2      2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........Max 92.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1200 ft AGL increasing to 9000-10700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing winds........West 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2000-30400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (57400-96600 knot-ft) late in
                    the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............64     74     84     91     92     92
RH..............90     74     51     37     31     31
20 ft wind......SW 4   W 5    W 5    W 6    W 6    W 6
20 ft wind gust.5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    900    3800   9000   10100  10100
Transport wind..SW 9   W 8    W 9    W 12   W 10   W 10
Mixing wind.....SW 9   W 8    W 9    W 12   W 10   W 10
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10002      6      30     90     91     91

$$
Forecaster...SCHMIT
Requested by...Eric Earhart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810642.0/MPX
.EMAIL eric_earhart@fws.gov



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