979
FXUS63 KOAX 150810
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances remain in the short term forecast
  through Thursday morning. A Marginal risk of severe weather
  will exist this afternoon into the evening 3pm through 10 pm.

- precipitation chances back in the forecast Saturday night
  through Tuesday as a couple of weather systems move through
  the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A few lingering showers were moving into southeast NE early this
morning but are struggling to hold together as they push farther
east away from a weak frontal boundary that remains across
central NE. CAMs suggest that a spotty shower or two will still
be possible this morning, with better chances for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary
begins to move through the region. However, the CAMS are also
not in good agreement on the timing of the front, with the HRRR
a little quicker with a line of storms than the Nam Nest for
example. Nevertheless, SPC maintained a marginal risk of severe
storms for mainly southeast NE where there`s a 5-10% chance of a
stronger storm or two with wind gusts and hail up to 1" in
diameter, and primarily in the 3pm to 10pm timeframe. Otherwise,
with plenty of clouds today combined with the rain chances, high
temperature forecasts are a little cooler in the lower 70s.

While precipitation chances end from north to south tonight,
there could be lingering showers Thursday morning south of I80,
but things dry out for Thursday afternoon. There isn`t a
significant amount of cooling behind the front with skies
clearing out, so high temperatures Thursday should be able to
reach into the middle to upper 70s once again.

Friday and Saturday should be dry with pleasant temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s, ahead of the next frontal boundary
that moves in through the day Saturday. Previous forecast had
highs into the upper 80s Saturday, but the frontal push is a
little faster, so temperatures could be just slightly cooler
than previously expected. There appears to be very limited
moisture with the front Saturday, so no precipitation expected.

However, models also quickly bring the next short wave out of
the Rockies late Saturday night. The NBM blend brings in some
slight chance Pops by daybreak Sunday, but feel this is probably
about 6 hours too soon. Precipitation chances really hold off
until Sunday when Pops increase to 30-50%. Both CIPS and CSU
severe weather probabilities from the 5/14 runs are showing at
least a small signal for stronger storms and this seems
reasonable. Highs Sunday back into the lower 80s.

And yet another quick moving short wave appears poised to move
into the region Monday night into early Tuesday, with another
50-60% chance of showers and storms, and again, CIPS/CSU severe
weather models both indicate at least stronger storms possible.
Highs Monday ahead of the system in the lower to mid 80s, and
highs Tuesday behind it in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Thunderstorms are on the decline west of KOFK, but are still
capable of a few flashes and rumbles of thunder 05-07z with the
main concern during the overnight hours is the development of
MVFR to IFR ceilings over Iowa into the KLNK and KOMA sites,
with a two hour period of reduced visibilities to around 5SM
possible right around sunrise. Afternoon shower and storm
chances continue to waver by a couple of hours earlier or later,
with the upcoming 06z TAFs reflecting the latest timing that is
expected. By the end of the TAF period, we are left with
clearing skies and departing rain chances at 06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Petersen