310
FXUS64 KOHX 041040
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
540 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Still tinkering with the first 36 hours of POPs, as the NBM
continues to give us unrealistically high values. So I`ve
populated with the SuperBlend this time, then trended toward the
NBM Sunday afternoon since it does appear that activity will start
to increase by then. We appear to be in better agreement with our
neighbors that way. Oh, and the new day 4 outlook from SPC places
the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee in the 15% highlight for
severe storms, while the day 5 outlook brings the 15% area into
roughly the northwest half of the mid state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Convection is ongoing across Middle Tennessee, with the heaviest
activity occurring south of I-40. A weak shortwave will drift
across the mid state overnight, and this will give us at least a
temporary lessening of the active weather. Our rain chances on
Saturday will be lower as a result. Still, some pop-up cells can
be expected later today. But since there is no real forcing
mechanism in place, we`ve eschewed the NBM POPs (too high!) and
instead used the CONSShort POPs for the first 36 hours of the
forecast. There is still plenty of instability and moisture in
place, so there`s no reason to think that the shortwave passage is
going to bring the active weather pattern to a complete halt.
It`s just that coverage and QPF values are going to be much lower
in the near-term than what we experienced Friday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Looking ahead, the active weather pattern will continue unabated
for the greater portion of this week following a series of
shortwaves and surface boundaries. It appears that we`ll get a
clean fropa maybe by the end of this week or early in the weekend,
and this may bring us a few days of rain-free weather and
somewhat cooler temperatures. Cumulative QPF totals from today
through next Friday evening are generally running 2-4" across the
region. Outside of localized flooding resulting from pockets of
high rainfall rates, the potential for widespread flooding is
minimal since those rainfall totals are going to spread across
several days. And the risk of severe storms throughout the next 7
days remains very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

While some scattered showers and storms will be around throughout
the TAF cycle, flight categories should be pretty decent. Biggest
exception will be CKV, where LIFR to VLIFR vis drops are becoming
more likely 10-13Z. Otherwise, brief MVFR cats with any heavier
rains.

Winds will be light and southwesterly for this cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  65  86  66 /  40  20  50  70
Clarksville    80  63  83  64 /  20  10  60  70
Crossville     74  60  79  61 /  70  20  40  60
Columbia       80  63  85  64 /  30  20  50  70
Cookeville     76  62  81  64 /  50  30  40  60
Jamestown      76  60  81  61 /  50  20  40  60
Lawrenceburg   79  63  84  64 /  40  20  50  70
Murfreesboro   79  63  86  64 /  40  10  50  60
Waverly        80  63  84  64 /  30  10  60  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger