Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
649 FXUS64 KOUN 271822 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 122 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight. Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of 60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma should be impacted by dangerous supercell thundrestorms capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time frame. Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues. Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public should not let their guard down after a storm has passed. Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed warnings! Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Thunderstorms should exit our forecast area tomorrow morning. ADditional forecast details will be given with later packages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across western and northern Oklahoma and western north Texas through the afternoon with the potential for large hail and strong tornadoes. Recent short-term guidance has suggested that storms will be arriving a bit later into central Oklahoma (around 3-5 PM), and these storms will also bring the threat of large hail and tornadoes (potentially strong). Tonight, there is a high potential for repeated thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across parts of central, southern, and southeastern Oklahoma. This activity could exit our forecast area as early as 7-8 AM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 60 79 55 79 / 100 20 0 10 Hobart OK 56 80 51 81 / 70 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 59 81 56 83 / 100 10 0 0 Gage OK 50 77 46 81 / 10 10 10 10 Ponca City OK 60 79 49 77 / 100 40 10 10 Durant OK 63 77 61 82 / 90 90 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ004>008-010>013- 015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...01