455
FXUS63 KPAH 031149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
649 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over
  Quad State, gradually shifting east by midday. Scattered
  showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly over the
  southeast half of the region this afternoon. Additional
  rainfall should generally be a half inch or less.

- Very warm temperatures continue will continue through next
  week.

- Scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday lead into
  a potentially active period Monday night through Thursday,
  where some potential will exist for severe thunderstorms and
  heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Weak southwest flow aloft and a rather flat surface pattern will
be the rule through Monday. A disturbance will slowly push east
of the region today, taking the scattered to numerous showers
with it. Most of the activity will be east of the region by 18Z,
but showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible mainly
over the southeast half of the region this afternoon and
evening.

As we head through Saturday, a northern stream trough will push
eastward through the upper Mississippi Valley. There has been a
persistent signal in the guidance for a broken line of storms to
develop along the associated cold front as it moves eastward
through Missouri. A few storms could reach southeast Missouri or
southern Illinois around sunset. They will be weakening as the
attempt to move through the Quad State Saturday night. There
could be some moderate instability for storms to work with in
the heat of the day Saturday, but convective initiation may be
difficult to get. The best chance for afternoon development will
be in southern and western portions of the region. Some gusty
winds, lightning and isolated heavy rainfall will be possible
with any storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

Another weak disturbance will lift northeast through the Quad
State Sunday night into Monday morning, and then a larger-scale
upper trough will quickly lift northeast from the Rockies toward
the northern Plains Monday night. The combination of these two
features will likely lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms
over the Quad State from Sunday afternoon through Monday and
possibly into Monday night.

The convection would arrive in southeast Missouri Sunday
afternoon and then overspread the remainder of the area Sunday
night. Some decent instability should be able to develop ahead
of the convection, so the storms on the leading edge of the rain
shield may have some potential to produce gusty winds as the
activity spreads eastward across the region in the afternoon and
evening. Wind shear will be weak which should prevent more
significant storm organization and severe storm potential.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with
the larger trough Monday night. The wind shear will increase
significantly, but it is uncertain if we will be able to develop
any instability behind Monday`s convection. If we do heat up
over southeast Missouri Monday afternoon, a few severe storms
will be possible Monday night.

For Tuesday we will be in a healthy west southwest flow aloft as
an elongated upper trough develops from southeast Canada
southwest through the Rockies. This increased flow aloft will
allow for much stronger southerly flow in the low-levels across
the Quad State Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusts up to 30 mph are a
good bet, and we may need to issue a Lake Wind Advisory both
days.

There is a decent signal in the latest guidance for multiple
rounds of convection to develop as minor disturbances move
through the region from Tuesday through Thursday. Given the west
southwest flow aloft, a decent cap should be in place and allow
for significant instability to develop each day, depending on
remnant cloud cover from the previous day`s activity. With
strong wind fields expected, each round of convection could pose
a severe threat, and with each round, the heavy rainfall and
flooding threat would increase.

By Friday the upper trough is expected to pivot eastward and
bring an end to the onslaught, but we could end up in the
dreaded dirty northwest flow heading into Mother`s Day weekend.
Until this upper trough can push a substantial cold front
through the region, allowing surface high pressure to build in,
temperatures will remain well above normal. Of course, the
daily chances of convection should help to mitigate the impact
of the prolonged warm weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered light showers will move slowly eastward across the
area this morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings across the north will
gradually improve to VFR by the end of the day. MVFR ceilings at
KCGI and KPAH will improve to VFR this afternoon. There is a
good chance of fog developing overnight, and some IFR/MVFR
ceilings could work back east to KOWB and KEVV.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS