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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 120513
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
113 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers will continue throughout the day as low
pressure exits to the east and a large upper level wave crosses
the region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Gusty winds are anticipated through Saturday morning. Much
cooler air will settle in today and remain through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Colder with showers continuing today.
- Strong winds today. Additional wind advisories may be needed.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Heaviest rain continues to slowly move eastward and will be out
of the forecast area by 1am. Deep surface low will move into
central PA late tonight, following on the heels of a strong
shortwave trough, that will swing into Maryland and SE PA. The
risk for showers will continue overnight, but rainfall is
expected to be light. With a tightening surface pressure
gradient on the backside of the low, winds will increase
overnight. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible as dawn
approaches. A wind advisory may be needed over the higher
elevations.

The powerful surface low that brought all the rain to the area
yesterday will continue to move northward over southern Canada,
north of Lake Erie. It will be pushed northward by a 500mb low
that will rotate through the Great Lakes region today. The
trough axis stretching south of the low will push through the
region this afternoon. On and off light rain showers are
expected throughout the day. Rainfall amounts should be light
generally 0.20-0.30 inches. NBM probs of >0.30 inches are
mainly 30% to 40%.

Colder air will overspread the region throughout the day, with
the coldest reaching the area this afternoon with the trough
axis. Temperatures today will sink back to below normal.

The other concern for today will be the strong winds. A very
tight surface pressure gradient, working with the cold air
advection and pressure rises, will work to bring the stronger
winds aloft down to the surface. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are
possible throughout the day. The strongest winds, pushing
advisory criteria, are expected over the higher elevations,
specifically Eastern Tucker county. A wind advisory may be
needed for a portion of the ridge counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and chilly Saturday.
- Warmer Sunday with the risk for showers.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Upper trough will lift over N New England on Saturday. Area will
remain under NW flow through the morning hours. The coldest air
will move through Saturday morning and then shift to the
northeast with the exiting trough. Once the coldest air aloft
exits the region, clouds will dissipate from southwest to
northeast.

Temperatures Saturday will remain a bit below normal.

A bit of a low confidence forecast on Sunday concerning the
passage of a cold front. Still seeing differing model solutions
on how far south the front will push on Sunday and in turn how
high the threat for rain will be. Models are leaning toward
higher probs Sunday afternoon. There will be a nice push of
warmer air ahead of the front, which will push temperatures back
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry beginning to the week with warm temperatures.
- Warm through the long term with unsettled weather returning on
  Tuesday.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Front should clear most of the area Monday morning, so except
for a few lingering showers over the southern reaches of the
forecast area, Monday looks to be dry. Somewhat cooler air will
settle in over the region on Monday, but temperatures should
still hold above normal.

The long range outlook likely remains unsettled with additional
trough movement from the intermountain west towards the Great
Lakes. Expect a continuation of above to well above normal
temperature with wave-dependent shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain intensity has backed off across portions of southwest
PA/northern WV, as a relatively thin portion of the rain shield
rotates northward to the southeast of the main surface low, now
lifting across Lake Erie. This has also allowed for some
improvement in flight category, even to VFR at locations south
of Pittsburgh. Any showers will be capable of creating MVFR/IFR
restrictions overnight.

Wind will continue to veer to the southwest overnight as the low
continues to advance, and they will become quite gusty
(exceeding 30-35 kt at times during the day on Fri). This will
continue the lighter rainfall trend, with much of the shower
activity limited to locations north of US-422 by sunrise. This
may also allow most terminals outside of FKL/DUJ to remain MVFR
at worst for a time.

Passage of a cold front around midday on Friday will bring a
coverage increase of showers once again, with IFR or low MVFR
flight restrictions returning. Wind will continue to be gusty,
veering slightly to W/NW with time. Some slow improvement is
expected in the evening as shower coverage lessens.

.Outlook...
Gusty conditions continue into Sat as low pressure swings
through the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for WVZ001>004-
     012-021-509>514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22/Frazier
AVIATION...CL?Kramar