Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 270720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An occlusion crosses this morning, with nothing more than isolated
showers. Dry weather and gradual clearing starts tomorrow,
lasting through Friday. Windy conditions return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

One last band of isolated showers, just ahead of an approaching
occlusion, was dissipating as it was moving through east
central Ohio Valley early this morning. Near term high res
guidance continues to insist showers will form in the northern
mountains early this morning.

Low level flow continues to impede fog formation, and this
should continue to be the case, with late help from the
occlusion crossing this morning, inviting a stratocumulus deck
to billow up with the help of cold advection, and after sunrise,
morning mixing. This will then lift into an afternoon cumulus
field, and then become a flat stratocu field late in the day
that then persists into the night, before breaking up from west
to east.

A flat mid level short wave trough may induce showers forming in
the mountains overnight tonight.

Duck Creek at Macksburg appears to have gone gone into crest
just below bankfull, but a flood warning was issued for the
Little Muskingum River at Bloomfield through the pre dawn hours,
which has subsequently gone just over bankfull. An inch or more
of rain fell across Noble and Monroe counties, with amounts of
one and a quarter to one and a third most widespread across
Monroe, hence impacting the Little Muskingum.

Central guidance reflects a baroclinic zone setting up across
the area today in the cold advection behind the occlusion, with
temperatures below normal northwest of the Ohio River, and
above southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

High pressure arrives post cold front to open shop on Thursday.
Northwesterly winds will allow for cooler than normal temperatures
such as mid to upper 50s across the lowlands with 40s and 50s in the
mountains. Gradually clearing will take place from west to east
during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...

Remaining dry with passing clouds for most of Friday as surface high
pressure sits to the southwest. An offshore disturbance will
increase the pressure gradient the area allowing for gusty winds
across the higher elevations of the mountains later in the
afternoon; winds will also be breezy at times across the lowlands.
Gusts look to be close to advisory criteria, so will have to
monitor trends and changes closely.

Rain chances will increase over the weekend as a disturbance and
stationary front arrive, interacting with a lee trough to the
east of the area. Rain chances and even the possibility for
thunderstorms look to last into next week as this stationary
front is projected to hang around the area. Warmer temperatures
will also return this weekend, lasting into next week. There
also looks to be chances for thunderstorms beginning of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

One last band of scattered showers, just ahead of an
approaching occlusion, will cross the middle Ohio Valhalla
overnight, which may effect PKB, with an MVFR stratocumulus deck
the most likely effect there.

A more widespread stratocu deck will move across the area as the
occlusion crosses in the morning, with the help of morning
mixing after sunrise. This may lower to IFR for a time at BKW,
before then evolving into an afternoon VFR cumulus deck area
wide, which is likely to then persist as a flat stratocu deck
after sunset.

Gusty southeast flow in the mountains and light south flow
elsewhere becomes light south everywhere as the flow in the
mountains diminishes and veers early. As the occlusion crosses,
surface flow then becomes light west before daybreak at HTS,
before daybreak PKB, after daybreak CRW and in the afternoon
farther east. Surface flow will veer to light northwest
throughout the area late in the day or at night. Moderate south
to southwest flow aloft becomes light southwest after daybreak,
and then light northwest late in the day or at night. Low level
wind shear may be present over the mountains early on. The low
level surface flow should preclude morning fog, and stratocu
should preclude fog formation at least through the end of the
TAF period, 06Z Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings may vary. Fog
development early this morning may be greater than currently
anticipated, potentially resulting in MVFR/IFR visibility
restrictions.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 03/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible early Thursday morning in and near
the mountains with low stratus.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Building high pressure will bring a mainly dry finish to the work
week amid near seasonable temperatures. Relative humidity values
lower into the 25-35% range Thursday afternoon, but under generally
light surface flow.

Friday afternoon will be on the breezy side amid relative
humidity values in the 30-40% range. The chance for showers
returns this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM

FIRE WEATHER...TRM/LTC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.