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000
FXUS63 KSGF 120850
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
350 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather risk today and
  again on Saturday.

- High confidence in drier weather and above normal temperatures
  this weekend with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Storm chances return early next week with severe weather
  possible Monday into Tuesday, but confidence is low on
  details. Additional shower and a few storms possible during
  the middle to end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

An upper level trough is moving south through the region this
morning. West of the upper level trough, a ridge of surface high
pressure is located across the plains. The upper level trough
will move off to the east this morning as an upper level ridge
builds east into the Plains today. The ridge of surface high
pressure will move east and over the area by this
afternoon/early this evening. The pressure gradient will tighten
some east of the high pressure (mainly east of Highway 65)
where gusts of 20 to 30 mph will develop this morning into early
this afternoon. As the surface high moves east, the winds
should gradually weaken from west to east this afternoon into
early this evening. A dry air mass is also moving into the area,
and afternoon relative humidity values will range from 20 to 30
percent. The strongest winds should occur prior to the lowest
humidity values, but gusty winds will continue into the
afternoon hours resulting in an elevated fire weather risk,
especially along and east of Highway 65. Highs this afternoon
will warm into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The surface high will move off to the east on Saturday as an
upper level ridge moves east over the region. Surface low
pressure will develop across the plains and the pressure
gradient will tighten across the area between the surface high
to the southwest and the surface low to the northwest. As a
result, gusty southwesterly winds will develop on Saturday with
gusts up to 30 to 40 mph at times. A warmer air mass will also
advect into the region allowing highs to warm into the upper 70s
to the lower 80s Saturday afternoon. A drier air mass will
remain in place and afternoon humidity values will generally
drop to 30 to 40 percent, however a few locations could drop to
around 25 percent. As a result elevated to locally significant
fire weather risk will develop Saturday afternoon.

A weak upper level disturbance will move east through the region
flattening the ridge Saturday evening and night. A drier air
mass will be in place limiting rain chances but there may be
just enough lift for a few sprinkles across portions of central
Missouri Saturday evening and night. Most, if not all locations
should remain dry.

The upper level ridge builds right back over the region as 850mb
temperatures in the lower 20C advects into the region. Highs on
Sunday will warm into the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The ensemble model members show an upper level low moving onto
the west coast on Saturday then digging southeast into the
desert southwest on Sunday. The models show the upper level low
will then move east into the Plains by Monday night and across
the region on Tuesday. Surface low pressure will develop ahead
of the upper level low and lift into the central Plains by
Monday night and lift northeast into Iowa by Tuesday night. A
warm front will remain north of the area and the dry line and
cold front will remain west of the area through much of the day
on Monday. A cap should develop south of the warm front and
allow most of the day on Monday to be dry. As a result, highs
in the low to middle 80s will once again occur on Monday across
the area. Storms are expected to develop on the dry line across
central Oklahoma and Kansas Monday afternoon and evening. The
cold front will start to move east Monday night and storms could
start to move into the area Monday night. The cold front should
then move across the area on Tuesday, with shower and storm
chances occurring with the frontal passage. The 00Z model
members overall continue with the slower trend with this system
which is trending more to Monday night if not Tuesday for the
best chance for showers and storms across our area.

Moisture will start to advect back into the region ahead of the
system Sunday night and Monday with dewpoints in the 60s
expected across the region. Instability should start to increase
across the region, but the question is just how much instability
will be present, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours on Monday and Tuesday. A strong cap will likely be in
place across the area during the day on Monday with the better
storm chances occurring west of the area closer to the dry line
and front. Deep layer shear will overspread the area and
depending on the exact timing of this system will lead to the
potential for severe storms across the region. With the slower
trend, the better potential looks to be mainly west of the area
through much of the day on Monday, however will have to watch
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then ahead of the cold front
on Tuesday afternoon and evening, depending on the exact timing
of the front and how much instability can develop. The exact
details on the potential severe weather across the area will be
dependent on the timing of the front and how much instability
can develop across the area which will be better known this
weekend when the storm system moves on to the west coast.

Gusty winds will develop across the area on Monday and
especially Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens and the
area of surface low pressure moves across the region.

Another upper level trough will move east across the northern
Plains during the middle to the end of next week. The ensemble
model members differ on the exact timing and track of this
system, but all show a cold front moving south through the area
at some point during the middle to end of next week. Showers and
a few storms will be possible with the front but there are
still questions on the exact timing and how fast the front will
move through, which will be dependent on the exact track and
timing of the upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will occur across the region tonight through the
day on Friday as a ridge of surface high pressure moves over
area. Winds will be out of the west to northwest this morning
and afternoon and could gusts up to 15 to 20kt at times, the
strongest winds will be during the mid morning through the area
afternoon hours. Winds will become light and variable Friday
evening and night as the ridge of high pressure moves over the
area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise