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000
FXUS64 KSHV 140738
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
238 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Synoptic pattern this morning is characterized by a surface high
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and a surface low across the
Great Plains allowing for an enhanced pressure gradient which will
generate gusty south winds up to 15 mph. Weak ridging aloft will
allow for fair skies throughout much of the day with the exception
of morning stratocu that should dissipate with the onset of
daytime heating. Regarding high temperatures today, NBM has been
trending a little cooler than recent observed afternoon temps.
Temps today could be a few degrees warmer than what was observed
on Saturday, thus went ahead and trended warmer for todays
forecast.

Stable conditions expected through tonight with overnight lows in
the lower 60s.

Upper-ridge to shift east on Monday allowing for upper-flow aloft
to become southwest bringing increased cloud cover across the
region. However, warm air advection to continue to be the main
driver of temps with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s
across much of the region. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Mostly cloudy skies expected across the region on Monday night
with overnight lows in the lower 60s. Pops are introduced across
southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties in southwest Arkansas and
northeast Texas as convergence increases ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary.

On Tuesday, surface cold front will move across the ArkLaTex.
A moisture plume ahead of the frontal boundary streaming north
from the Gulf of Mexico will help to destabilize the environment
enough for convection to ignite with the onset of daytime
heating. Some storms could be severe with hail, damaging winds,
and isolated tornadoes possible mainly along and north of a line
from Monroe to Lufkin.

Although upper-level support to maintain strong convection
diminishes on Wednesday, the surface frontal boundary will linger
areawide. The combination of the nearly stalled front combined
with southwest flow aloft will allow for enough instability to
support airmass driven afternoon convection through Friday before
the cold front is driven south of the region. Much cooler
temperatures expected behind the front from Friday onward ranging
from lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s and 70s. Elevated
showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain possible through
the weekend as upper-level flow remains near zonal each day.
/05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

For the 14/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions will continue through
the evening and much of the overnight period with just some thin
cirrus south of I-20. As daybreak approaches, some MVFR cigs will
develop and expand NE across parts of East TX through the morning
hours. While these cigs may also briefly affect portions of NW
LA/extreme SW AR after 12Z, they should scatter quickly, but may
linger a bit longer through mid to late morning over E TX before
eventually scattering out during the afternoon. They should lift
into a modest cu field and gradually spread NE across much of our
remaining airspace later in the period. Breezy south winds will
persist, albeit slightly lower overnight, before increasing once
again on Sunday between 12-18 kts with higher gusts ranging from
20-30 kts during the afternoon.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  65  86  69 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  85  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  82  61  80  63 /   0   0   0  30
TXK  84  64  83  66 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  84  61  83  64 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  84  65  83  68 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  83  64  84  67 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  85  65  86  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...19