Extended Streamflow Guidance
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Northeast River Forecast Center Norton MA
618 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /6/

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is slightly above normal across
the White Mountain region of New Hampshire.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential for the northeastern United States
is near normal across most of the Adirondacks and Catskills of New
York...the Hudson Valley...most of Vermont...southern New
England...most of New Hampshire and Maine. A slight elevated risk
for river flooding exists for portions of the southern Adirondacks
short term. River flooding continues near term across portions of
southern Rhode Island and southern Connecticut.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is below normal across western New
York and extending into the Finger Lakes region and the Saint
Lawrence Valley and in far northern Maine.

The potential for flooding due to ice jams is near normal across the
northern portion of Maine...particularly along the Saint John and
Aroostook Rivers. Elsewhere the threat for ice jam flooding has
mostly passed.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

March 2024 began unseasonably mild and wetter than normal across
most of the NERFC area. March average temperature departures through
the 10th ranged from +7 to +15F above normal.

March 2024 precipitation departures through the 10th generally
ranged from 2.00 to 4.00+ inches above normal thanks to successive
low systems which arrived on the 2nd-3rd...5th-7th and 9th-10th. The
wettest departures were found across extreme southeastern New York
State...Connecticut...Rhode Island...central and eastern
Massachusetts outside of the Cape and Islands...central and southern
New Hampshire and Maine except less observed in northwestern areas.
Precipitation departures were normal less than 0.50 above to less
than 0.50 inch below normal in northern Maine and western New York.

March 2024 snowfall totals through the 10th were mostly below normal
at most long term climate locations due to above normal average
temperatures...although high terrain areas of northern New York and
northern New England received some significant snowfall on the 9th-
10th.

A moderate El Nino remains with observed sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies +1.4C in the Nino 3.4 region. The El Nino has
gradually weakened with the most recent three month average Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) +1.8C from December 2023 through February 2024.
The El Nino is forecast to remain through March-May 2024 and then
transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June 2024. Late
this summer a transition to La Nina conditions is forecast.

The El Nino has been responsible for an active subtropical jet
stream with wetter and milder than normal conditions extending
across most of the NERFC area this winter into early March.
In fact preliminary climatological Winter 2023-24 (DJF) average
temperatures ranked within the top ten mildest on record at most of
the long term climate locations with most reporting top ten wettest
climatological winters on record except across northern Maine and
western New York. Climatological winter snowfall totals were also
generally within top ten least snowiest at many of the long term
climate sites except for the Buffalo area. There was a reprieve in
precipitation during February as the northern branch of the jet
stream was more dominant allowing deeper moisture to generally
remain shunted away from the Northeast.

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and (AO) teleconnections
were both slightly negative while the Pacific North American (PNA)
teleconnection was slightly positive. A positive PNA and negative
NAO/AO combination promotes more ridging in the western CONUS with
troughing across the eastern CONUS. All three indices are forecast
to approach near neutral during the next two weeks with the Artic
Oscillation (AO) remaining slightly negative. Thus a somewhat less
amplified and zonal pattern is anticipated with some transient
troughing extending into the northeast. A split jet stream pattern
will make individual low tracks and QPF impacts more challenging
depending on timing and potential phasing. While the subtropical jet
stream is still active there will be an opportunity for southern
stream low system(s) to produce more significant precipitation if
deeper moisture can approach...primarily across southern and eastern
areas. A split jet stream pattern with less blocking would typically
yield more seasonable temperatures on average with cold air
intrusions brief. Due to the lack of areal snow cover and pre-
greenup conditions...temperatures may be milder than typically
expected. It currently appears the northern branch of the jet stream
will remain more dominant across the Northeast along with the
negative AO...allowing for a drier cooler pattern next week. However
there is the chance a deeper southern stream system may approach
during week two.

The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks March 19-26 generally agree with
average temperatures leaning normal short term to above normal long
term and precipitation near normal short term leaning wetter than
normal long term.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

The above normal temperatures...increasing sun angle and melt runoff
from precipitation events in early March continued to deplete snow
cover across most of the region. However high terrain areas of
northern New York and northern New England received accumulating
snow March 9-10th. The deepest snow cover and higher snow water
equivalents were generally found across the White Mountain region of
New Hampshire and far western Maine. Even in these areas...average
snow water values are mostly below normal except near the peaks.

...NEW YORK STATE...

Below normal snow cover and snow water for mid March is found across
the state. New snow was reported on March 9-10th across western and
northern portions of the state...but most of this has recently
melted. The ground is bare across most of the state except for the
high terrain of the Adirondacks and wooded areas of the nearby
Mohawk...Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valley regions. Spotty snow
cover also exists across the peaks and deep wooded areas of the
Catskills.

In the Catskill region...webcams from the New York Mesonet indicated
spotty snow cover at Roxbury. Spotty light snow cover of a few
inches or less exists across some of the deep wooded areas and peaks
above 1500 feet but likely encompasses a small area of coverage with
snow water equivalents generally under 0.25 inch.

In the Adirondack region...More widespread snow cover is found
across high terrain areas generally above 1500 feet. Along the
lower slopes of the Adirondacks the snow cover is more spotty with
patchy snow depths of 1 to 3 inches with snow water equivalents of
0.50 inch or less. Heading across high terrain areas above 1500 feet
snow depths range from 4 to 7 inches with locally higher depths up
to a foot across the peaks. The highest observed snow depth 7 inches
was found at Olmstedville as of 13 March 2024. Snow water
equivalents are generally averaging 1.00 to 3.00 inches with 4.00+
inches across the highest elevations. These snow water equivalents
are generally averaging around 50 percent or less of normal for mid
March. The highest snow water equivalents were found along the upper
reaches of the Hudson River at Newcomb... upper reaches of the
Hudson River at North Creek and the upper reaches of the Schroon
River at Riverbank.

Heading across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valley regions...
snow cover is more spotty and confined across the deeper wooded
areas mostly to the north of the Adirondacks. Snow depths in these
areas vary from bare ground to a few inches but locally more in the
deeper wooded areas. Snow water equivalents are mostly NIL up to
0.50 inch with 0.50 to 1.00 inch closer to the slopes of the
Adirondacks.

Examining the Tug Hill region and southern slopes of the Adirondacks
leading into the Mohawk Valley...snow depths and snow water
equivalents are either below normal or non existent due to melt from
above normal temperatures and precipitation events which were mostly
rain in early March. Snow depths generally up to a few inches were
found across deep wooded areas and the peaks and snow water
equivalents were generally 0.50 inch or less.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

The ground is bare across most of the region except for the
Berkshires in western Massachusetts. Snow depths in the Berkshires
were generally a few inches or less mostly confined to deep wooded
areas and across the higher terrain. Snow water equivalents were
1.00 inch or less...highest at Rowe nearing the Vermont border.

...VERMONT...

Snow cover and deeper snow depths are mostly confined across high
terrain and wooded areas. Average snow water equivalents are mostly
below normal especially west of the Green Mountains and the middle
Connecticut Valley region. Snow water equivalents are closer to
normal nearing the highest peaks.

The Champlain Valley region is mostly bare with some spotty light
snow cover of a few inches found mostly across deeper wooded areas.
Snow water equivalents were mostly NIL to less than 1.00 inch.

Looking at the Missisquoi Valley of far northern Vermont...the
ground is mostly bare with patchy snow cover in deep wooded areas
near Swanton. Snow depths increase up to 4 inches near Westfield
with deeper snow depths found approaching the slopes of the Green
Mountains. Snow water equivalents range from NIL up to 0.25 inch
near Swanton but increase to 1.00-1.50 inches from East Berkshire
to North Troy.

In southern areas of the state including the southern Green
mountains and the middle Connecticut Valley...the ground is bare
across the portions of the middle Connecticut River Valley with the
most concentrated snow cover found across deeper wooded and higher
elevation locations above 1500 ft. In these areas snow depths range
from 1 to 3 inches except 3 to 6+ inches across elevations above
1500 feet. The highest snow depth 6 inches was found at Landgrove on
13 March 2024. Snow water equivalents range from NIL to less than
1.00 inch across portions of the middle Connecticut Valley but
increase to 1.00 to 3.00+ inches across the higher terrain. The
highest snow water equivalent was found along the West River at Ball
Mountain Lake.

Heading across the upper Connecticut River Valley into the Northeast
Kingdom of Vermont...Snow depths vary depending on elevation and sun
exposure. The lowest snow depths NIL up to a few inches were found
close to the Connecticut River. Snow depths increase to 3 to 6
inches away from the valleys and in wooded areas. Snow depths
increase to 8 to 18+ inches above 1500 feet. The highest snow depth
21 inches was found at Groton on 13 March 2024. Average snow water
equivalents range from 1.00 to 4.00+ inches. The highest snow water
equivalents were found along the White River at West Hartford and
the upper reaches of the Connecticut River at Dalton.

The snow depth below the summit of Mount Mansfield was 64 inches
which was about six inches below the normal of 70 inches for 12
March 2024. Outside of the highest elevations of Vermont where snow
depth is only a bit below normal...snow depths across the Green
Mountain state are well below normal for mid March.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

Snow cover and deeper snow depths are mainly concentrated across the
White Mountain region in northern parts of the state. Snow water
equivalents are below normal across most of the state except closer
to normal across the peaks of the White Mountains.

In southern portions of the state...the ground is bare across most
of the area. Patchy snow cover of a few inches or less is found
across wooded and high terrain areas of the Monadnocks. Snow water
equivalents are mostly NIL to under an inch.

Heading across northern parts of the state...snow depths vary from 2
to 8 inches across the lower elevations. The higher snow depths were
observed across wooded areas and nearing the slopes of the White
Mountains. The lowest snow depths were found northwest of the White
Mountain region nearing the upper Connecticut River. Snow depths
increase to one to two feet across elevations above 1500 feet with
some higher depths found across the peaks. The highest snow depths
31 inches were observed at Gray Knob elevation approximately 4300
feet and Carter Notch elevation approximately 3400 feet as of 13
March 2024. Snow water equivalents range from 1.00 to 4.00+ inches
from the lower elevations to above 1500 feet...6.00-8.00+ inches
across the peaks. The highest snow water equivalents are found along
the upper reaches of the Ammonoosuc River at Bethlehem...the upper
reaches of the Pemigewasset River at Woodstock and Plymouth...upper
reaches of the Saco River at Conway.

...MAINE...

Below normal snow water equivalents are found across the state
except slightly closer to normal across western portions approaching
the White Mountain region of New Hampshire.

Along the coastal plain the ground is bare in most areas with snow
water equivalents near NIL.

Heading across the foothills...snow cover and snow depths increase
some particularly across wooded and higher terrain locations. Snow
depths were generally a few inches or less. Snow water equivalents
were generally 1.00 inch or less.

Examining northern parts of the state...snow depths increase to 1 to
6 inches in the Caribou area...with the deeper snow depths west of
Caribou. Elsewhere 8 to 16 inch snow depths were observed across the
Saint John and Aroostook basins into the Allagash region. Snow water
equivalents vary from about 1.00 to 3.50"+...lowest near Caribou and
highest west. Across the Penobscot and Piscataquis basins snow
depths vary from 2 to 10 inches. Snow water equivalents vary from
1.00 to 2.50". Chimney Pond Elevation 2930 feet reported a snow
depth of 19 inches.

Across western parts of the state snow depths vary from 2 to 11
inches depending on elevation and sun exposure. Locally higher
depths are found across the peaks. Snow water equivalents range from
1.00 to 4.00+ inches. The highest snow water equivalents are found
across the upper reaches of the Swift River at Roxbury...upper
reaches of the Androscoggin River at Rumford...Kennebec River at the
Forks...the Carrabasset River at North Anson.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS...

Wetter than normal conditions to begin March has allowed antecedent
moisture states to rebound from what was a drier than normal
February across most of New England and New York State. Abnormally
wet conditions have expanded across portions of southern New England
and southeastern New York State. Near surface soil moisture anomaly
maps as of 11 March 2024 indicate over 80th percentile soil moisture
anomalies across southeastern New York State...Connecticut and Rhode
Island. The coverage area of below normal soil moisture states has
decreased but continues from the Genesee valley of western New York
to the Lake Erie shoreline.

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) depicts soil moisture
states from weeks to months in the past. Taking a look at the latest
PDSI map from 09 March 2024...Extremely Moist conditions are shown
as the wettest possible category across central and southeastern New
York State...southern New England...Vermont...southern New Hampshire
and coastal Maine to the foothills. Very moist to unusually moist
conditions were found across the Adirondacks in New York State and
the White Mountain region in northern New Hampshire. Near normal
moisture states were found across northwestern Maine and portions of
western New York.

Taking a look at groundwater monitoring wells across the region
courtesy of the United States Geological Survey ( USGS ) reveals an
overall net increase in groundwater levels across New England and
New York State. Most wells in New England and eastern New York State
are above normal to near normal Several wells are setting record
high monthly levels compared to January when numerous wells were at
their highest level for the month. However there are numerous wells
that are currently above the 90th percentile level for March across
eastern New York and New England. There remains a handful of
locations at record maximum levels for March including:

Templeton Massachusetts - 62 years of record

Acton Massachusetts - 58 years of record

Wenham Massachusetts - 55 years of record

Exeter Rhode Island - 42 years of record

Eustis Maine - 22 years of record

Conversely...groundwater levels across western New York State have
declined and now widespread below normal levels are seen in
monitoring wells from the Genesee River Valley west to the Buffalo
area.

Lowest minimum levels for March:

Gainesville NY - 50 year period of record

Batavia NY - 26 year period of record.

This coincides with the area of abnormally dry and moderate
drought conditions indicated in the latest United States Drought
Monitor map from 05 March 2024.

We note that the large...deep aquifer across Long Island east of New
York City which was at a below normal February level has increased
closer to normal for March. Moderate drought remained across
Nantucket Island. However improvements in groundwater levels have
been observed across the Cape Cod Aquifer...Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket during the past couple of weeks.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS AND WATER SUPPLY...

Water supply reservoirs across most of New England continue to
average above to well above normal. Across New York State...water
supply reservoirs have mostly increased over the past couple of
weeks due to above normal precipitation and snowmelt runoff. Indian
Lake in Adirondack region has increased to 5.5 feet above its normal
March pool level. Great Sacandaga Lake just to the south was about
20 feet higher than its normal March pool height and at a maximum
mid March level. Hinckley Reservoir was 20.8 feet above normal level
and also at a maximum mid March level. Nearby Stillwater Reservoir
was 3.8 feet above the normal mid March level. Owasco Lake in
central New York State is now running about 0.3 foot above its
normal mid March level. And in northeast New York State...Lake
Champlain level has now increased to 2.3 feet above normal mid March
levels.

Across southeastern New York State...the New York City Water Supply
System...comprised of 7 large reservoirs...was over capacity at
100.6 percent as of 13 March 2024 which was 8.4 percent above
normal. Four of the 7 large reservoirs...Cannonsville...Neversink..
Pepacton and Croton were above capacity and spilling water
uncontrolled over its outlet works.

In northern New England...the Kennebec River Basin in Maine was 70.4
percent full as of 26 February 2024 which was 82.3 percent above
normal. The nearby Androscoggin River storage was 66.8 percent full
which was 33.4 percent above normal. The Penobscot River was 58.6
percent full and 28.3 percent above the long term average. The Union
River was 79.6 percent full and 62 percent above the long term
average. Lake Winnipesaukee New Hampshire level increased to 3.7
feet or about 0.8 foot above normal for mid March. Its level had
been close to normal after declining levels and a release of water
in February. In far northern Vermont...Lake Memphremagog in Newport
was running 0.5 foot above its normal pool level for March.

Across southern New England...Quabbin Reservoir...the main water
supply reservoir for the Boston Metropolitan area...was at 98.8
percent of capacity as of 1 March 2024 which is in the normal
operating range. The smaller Wachusett Reservoir was also in the
normal range for March...at 89.0 percent of capacity. Scituate
Reservoir...the main water supply reservoir for northern Rhode
Island including the city of Providence...was at 285.61 feet as of
13 March 2024. This was 106 percent of capacity. Water at this level
is flowing over the spillway uncontrolled into the mainstem Pawtuxet
River.

In general...we do not anticipate large scale water supply issues
heading into Spring. However...there are some areas of
concern...particularly across western New York State in the Genesee
Valley and Buffalo Creek regions where below normal groundwater
levels and the current lack of snowcover for recharge may lead to
supply issues unless we observe above normal precipitation amounts
through Spring. In addition...low groundwater levels and long term
precipitation deficits have some concern for water supply on
Nantucket Island in southeast Massachusetts if we don`t experience
above normal rainfall into Spring. Recent readings...however...as
mentioned...confirm some improvement to groundwater levels on
Nantucket.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

River and stream flows are above normal across most of New England
and New York State with the exception of western New York State
where they are near to much below normal. The highest streamflows
were found across southern New England...southern and central New
Hampshire and in Maine. Some specific high streamflow locations
included the west branch of the Farmington River at Riverton
Connecticut..the Ashuelot River below Mount Surry Dam New
Hampshire...the Merrimack River at Franklin Junction and near Goffs
Falls New Hampshire...the Contoocook River below West Hopkinton Dam
New Hampshire...the Piscataquog River near Goffstown New
Hampshire...Saco River at Cornish Maine...East Branch of the
Penobscot River at Grindstone Maine...Big Black River Maine...Saint
John River at Dickey Maine.

The Oatka Creek at Batavia and Garbutt New York were within the
lowest 10 percent of the historical record for mid March.

River ice coverage and thicknesses have decreased during the past
couple of weeks where it exists across far northern basin areas due
to above normal average temperatures...the increasing sun
angle...rain and snow and resulting melt runoff.

River ice remains mostly thin where it exists across parts of
northern New York State including the Adirondack region and in
northern Vermont. Webcams show partial thin ice cover remaining
across the upper Saint Regis in the Adirondacks. Tupper Lake was
mostly open. Lake Champlain was also mostly open. In far northern
New Hampshire First Connecticut Lake was mostly ice covered.
Freezing degree day estimates suggest ice thicknesses as much as 3
to 6+ inches in northern New Hampshire...elsewhere from the
Adirondacks of northern New York into northern Vermont ice
thicknesses were generally a few inches or less. Otherwise with the
exception of northern and western Maine...most area rivers were open
and flowing.

The Kennebec River at Augusta Maine is open and flowing. Moosehead
Lake in Piscataquis County in northwestern Maine was partially ice
covered with some openings. Similar river ice conditions were found
along Flagstaff Lake in Eustis.

From WFO Caribou Maine...An ice jam was located near the confluence
of the Allagash and Saint John Rivers a few hundred feet downstream
of the Allagash gauge. Flooding was not occurring. The Saint John
River is completely flushed above Dickey Maine. Mixed ice conditions
exist from the Allagash Saint Francis town line to the Saint John
Plantation. Openings exist with ice becoming thicker back in the
narrow gauge. Mixed ice conditions with openings were observed from
Frenchville to Madawaska. Solid sheet ice exists from Van Buren to
Hamlin. Along the Allagash River sheet ice with open leads extends 3-
3.5 river miles from the route 161 bridge. Along the Aroostook River
conditions have flushed from the headwaters to Presque Isle. Ice
remains locked in place from Fort Bridge to Tinker Dam in northern
Maine. Ice was remaining just upstream along the Caribou Dam but had
not yet gone over spillway as of 11 March 2024. However the ice is
expected to eventually arrive further downstream in Fort Fairfield
where it was open. The Piscataquis...Penobscot and Mattawamkeag
Rivers were mostly open and ice free.

Freezing degree day ice thickness estimates were as much as 6-12+
inches in patches across portions of far northern Maine rivers such
as the Aroostook and Saint John.

River ice is virtually non-existent across the remainder of the
NERFC basins and will not be able to reform this season due to
increasing solar radiation.

There are currently no other known ice jams on rivers or streams in
the NERFC service area.

...IN CONCLUSION...

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is below normal across western New
York. Snow depths and snow water equivalents are well below normal.
Soil moisture and streamflows are below normal particularly from the
Genesee Valley west to Buffalo where abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions are found. There are no significant precipitation
events forecast at this time. Thus a below normal outlook is deemed
for this region.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is below normal across far
northwestern Maine. Precipitation and snowmelt runoff over the past
couple of weeks has boosted streamflows above normal across this
region and groundwater levels have responded as well. Snow depths
and snow water equivalents were much below normal and notable longer
term precipitation deficits remain across Aroostook County. There is
the chance to build some additional snowpack over the next couple of
weeks due to an outlook for some above normal precipitation.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is below normal across the Saint
Lawrence Valley and the far northwestern Adirondacks of New York
State. Snow depths and snow water equivalents are below normal. Soil
moisture and streamflows are closer to normal. Groundwater levels
are generally above normal levels for mid March. There are no
significant precipitation events forecast at this time. Thus a below
normal outlook is deemed across this region.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is near normal across most of the
Adirondacks and Champlain Valley region of New York State. Snow
depths and snow water equivalents are below normal. Soil moisture
and streamflows are mostly above normal. Groundwater levels are
above normal levels for mid March. In fact the Hinckley Reservoir
was running at its maximum level for mid March. There is a slight
elevated river flood risk near term across the southern Adirondacks.
The MMEFS is indicating some flood potential across portions of the
southern Adirondacks from 3/16-18 mainly the Schroon River at
Riverbank where there is some snowpack available for melt runoff.
QPF amounts up 0.50-0.75 inch will assist with the runoff for the
event. Otherwise a near normal risk is forecast as there is not
currently forecast to be a more significant rainfall event during
the next two weeks.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is near normal across Vermont.
Snow depths and snow water equivalents are below normal across this
region...except close to normal across some of the high peaks.
Antecedent conditions are extremely moist and streamflows are above
normal. The Lake Champlain level was 2.3 feet above normal level for
mid March indicative of the moist antecedent conditions. Looking
ahead there are no significant precipitation events combined with
melt runoff anticipated to produce flooding. However given the moist
antecedent conditions and remaining snowpack available for melt
runoff going forward...a near normal outlook is forecast.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is near normal across southern New
Hampshire and the foothills and coastal plain region in Maine. Snow
depths and snow water equivalents are below normal across this
region. Antecedent conditions are extremely moist and streamflows
are above normal. Eustis Maine groundwater level was at a record
high for mid March indicative of limited storage for additional
runoff in this region. The long range forecast leans toward above
normal precipitation. Thus a near normal outlook is forecast.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is near normal across extreme
southeastern New York State into southern New England. Antecedent
conditions are extremely moist and streamflows are above normal to
high. Minor river flooding remains along the Pawcatuck River at
Westerly RI...Wood River Junction RI and the Connecticut River at
Middle Haddam Ct. Record high groundwater levels for mid March
extend across several locations in this region. Thus there is not
much additional room for runoff storage. Fortunately there is
currently little or no snow water remaining across this region. The
long range outlook is leaning towards above normal precipitation.
Thus a near normal outlook is forecast for this region.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is near normal in far northern New
Hampshire. Precipitation and snowmelt runoff over the past couple of
weeks has boosted streamflows above normal across this region and
groundwater levels have responded as well. Snow depths and snow
water equivalents were much below normal although not
inconsequential. There is the chance to build some additional
snowpack over the next couple of weeks due to an outlook for some
above normal precipitation. The flood potential is below normal
short term increasing closer to near normal longer term.

The Winter/Spring Flood Potential is above normal in the White
Mountain region of northern New Hampshire. Snow water values are
close to normal for mid March in high terrain areas above 1500 feet.
Antecedent conditions are very moist to extremely moist across this
region. Streamflows are currently above normal due to runoff from
snowmelt and with frequent precipitation to begin March. The long
range outlook leans above normal precipitation. The near term threat
for river flooding is near normal leaning above normal longer term.

The threat for ice jam flooding is near normal across far northern
Maine. An ice jam was recently observed near the confluence of the
Allagash and Saint John Rivers a few hundred feet downstream of the
Allagash gauge...but no flooding was observed. River ice which
increased in February has begun to weaken and move out due to
warming average daily temperatures...increased streamflows from
precipitation and melt runoff. The volume of ice and melt runoff may
be enough to produce isolated ice jam flooding especially near
obstructions and bends along the Saint John and Aroostook Rivers.

River ice across the remainder of northern New York and northern New
England including the Adirondacks...northern Vermont...northern New
Hampshire and central Maine is either thin or consists of openings.
This ice is not expected to be significant enough to produce a
threat for ice jam flooding. Thus the threat for ice jam flooding in
these areas is below normal.

Elsewhere across the NERFC area the threat of ice jam flooding has
passed. River ice is either patchy or non existent. The increasing
sun angle and warming average temperatures will make it difficult to
form additional river ice the remainder of this winter/spring season.

It is important to remember that very heavy rainfall can result in
flooding at any time of year...even in areas that have little or no
snow on the ground.

A graphic depicting the flood potential across the NERFC service
area is available on the NERFC web site at

        ***   www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential   ***

The next Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be issued by the
NERFC on Thursday 28 March 2024.

End/Strauss
$$


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