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000
FXUS62 KTBW 202359
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
759 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

No changes needed to existing forecast. Primary overnight concern
remains fog potential which still appears to exist north of I-4
with greatest likelihood from around Hernando-Sumter counties
northward. A less-pronounced signal for fog exists across parts
of SWFL between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor tonight, but at
this time remains shrouded in enough uncertainty to withhold from
the current forecast. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies expected overnight with light winds and lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge is over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon
with weak troughing east of Florida, and this pattern is keeping a
northwest flow aloft over the local area. At the surface, high
pressure remains centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. As we
head through tonight and Sunday, flow aloft becomes more west to
southwest as some shortwave energy moves across the northern Gulf
coast and a surface boundary moves into north Florida. Most of the
forecast area will remain warm and dry through the day, but we do
start to see some increasing rain chances later in the afternoon for
our far northern zones. The boundary makes slow progress southward
Sunday night into Monday, with increasing rain chances north to
south. A few storms will also be possible, and a strong one or two
cannot be completely ruled out, and the Storm Prediction Center does
keep much of the area within a marginal risk for severe weather.

High pressure moves over the southeast behind the boundary for
Tuesday, with the most noticeable difference for us being some lower
dew points (50s area-wide). We quickly moderate for Wednesday and
Thursday and really toward the weekend, with humidity and
temperatures increasing by a few degrees each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Generally VFR through period with light winds generally 5 knots or
less overnight increasing to SW 8-12 knots late morning. Period of
mist/patchy fog possible for LAL/PGD late overnight through early
morning but current thinking is that impact will be mostly
minimal. Winds decrease into evening but remain SW 5-10 knots in
advance of approaching cold front which will also provide
increasing clouds over latter half of TAF cycle along with showers
being introduced in subsequent cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic for the
next couple of days, with light winds becoming west to southwest in
the afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Sunday night
through Monday, with a chance for showers and a few storms. Winds
quickly turn northerly on Monday and then northeast through the
middle part of the week. Overall, no headlines are expected, though
winds could briefly near exercise caution levels behind the
boundary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels. A cold front will move
through the area Sunday night into Monday, with drier air moving
into the region for mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  84  71  79 /   0  10  30  40
FMY  70  87  71  85 /   0   0   0  30
GIF  67  89  68  82 /   0  10  30  60
SRQ  67  85  70  82 /   0   0  20  40
BKV  61  85  63  79 /   0  10  40  40
SPG  72  82  72  79 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana