Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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274 FXUS62 KTBW 280832 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 432 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Ridging aloft and at the surface remain over the state this morning leading to another primarily dry and occasionally breezy day across the area. Given the brisk easterly low-level flow, a stray shower cannot completely be ruled out this afternoon as Atlantic moisture moves across the peninsula, however, PoPs remain below 10 percent with no measurable precip expected. Afternoon highs likely to remain within a few degrees of climatology, in the mid to upper 80s. Ridging gradually weakens and shifts east on Mon-Tue as a shortwave pushes across the E U.S., allowing the gradient over the area to relax while the E-SE flow diminishes a bit, enabling sea breeze development during the afternoons. A slight uptick in shower chances is likely on Tue-Wed afternoons as moisture briefly increases over the area, before high pressure again builds over the E U.S./Seaboard over the latter half of the week. Temps increase a few degrees with lows in the mid to upper 60s, while highs range from the mid 80s coastal due to the sea breeze, to the upper 80s/lower 90s away from the coast. PoPs remain generally around 10 percent or less, with perhaps a stray shower possible mainly interior and south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Ridging along the E Seaboard continues to support a tightened gradient across local terminals with elevated easterly flow and mainly dry conditions. Winds generally 8-12 knots overnight into early morning, increasing to 10-15 knots late morning into afternoon with higher gusts, before diminishing back into the 8-12 knot range late evening into overnight with an occasional higher gust remaining possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure with a tight pressure gradient remains over the waters today with advisory conditions diminishing to cautionary levels this morning. Winds diminish further this afternoon before another round of cautionary level conditions likely with the easterly surge this evening and overnight, before diminishing below cautionary levels on Monday and remaining there through the remainder of the week. The sea breeze likely returns early-mid week with winds turning onshore during the afternoons along the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure remains the primary influence over the area through the week with minimum RH values in the 30s-40s to approaching critical thresholds for a few hours in the afternoons. Gusty easterly winds possible today during the afternoon into evening hours with high dispersions in some areas. Fire weather risk remains somewhat elevated with these conditions, however, fuels expected to remain moist enough to preclude additional concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 67 86 70 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 87 65 87 68 / 10 0 10 10 GIF 85 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 88 65 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 86 70 86 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Carlisle