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000
FXUS62 KTBW 180003
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
803 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Stacked ridging over the region continues to produce subsidence
aloft trapping the dry airmass in place over the area. The
surface pressure gradient is relaxing as high pressure weakens
across the FL Peninsula. Expect more above normal temperatures
while humidity remains fairly low then a more pronounced and
cooling west coast seabreeze should push further inland Thursday.
Latest grids and forecast in good shape.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VRF conditions continue with mostly clear skies and light/variable
winds tonight then bay/seabreeze winds Thursday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The dry and stable weather pattern continues as mid level ridging
in the Gulf of Mexico and surface high pressure in the Atlantic
continues to remain in place. By late week, there will be some
flattening of the ridge as a large upper level low drifts across
northern Ontario and our flow aloft will transition from
northwesterly to more of a westerly (zonal) orientation for the
upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, this upper level low in Canada and
the associated low pressure system will drive a cold front across
the Eastern Seaboard by the weekend and as this occurs, the
Atlantic high pressure will shift further offshore with the
surface ridge axis setting up to the south of the area. With a
gradual uptick in deeper moisture and a mostly WSW flow in place
for the weekend, there may be a few light showers that develop in
our interior areas as the sea breeze collision occurs over the
eastern side of the peninsula. This also seems to be supported by
recent guidance showing some potential for light pockets of QPF
over the weekend associated with some of this sea breeze activity
but for now will hold off on adding any PoPs to the official
forecast as confidence still remains low.

By late weekend, a southern stream shortwave trough will swing
across the lower Mississippi Valley and this will support the
development of a surface low around the northern Gulf Coast. This
surface low will quickly shift off to the northeast as it moves
offshore of the Carolinas and rain chances will increase area-wide
as the aforementioned cold front slides southward across the
peninsula on Monday. Models then show the frontal boundary sliding
south of the area by Monday night with drier air then building
into the area as high pressure builds in from the north. While
there will also be some slightly cooler air in the wake of the
frontal boundary, particularly for the northern half of the area,
temperatures are generally expected to remain normal through the
end of the extended forecast period as any cold air advection
behind the front looks limited at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic will remain in place through the end
of the week, providing warm and dry conditions across the coastal
waters and favorable marine conditions. Winds shift to the west-southwest
by the weekend as a cold front ahead of a cold front that is
expected to arrive by Monday and bring the next chance of rain
across the area, but no headlines are expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Minimum RH values will continue to drop below critical levels
through the remainder of the week in inland areas as a dry air
mass remains in place, though wind speeds will be light enough to
preclude any red flag concerns. Humidity values will finally start
to recover by the weekend as winds become southwesterly ahead of
a cold front that is expected to arrive by next Monday, which will
bring the next chance of rain across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  87  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  87  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  64  90  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  65  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  84  70  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

RJD