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000
FXUS63 KTOP 132340
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday, approaching
  record values.

- The combination of breezy winds, low relative humidity, and
  very warm temperatures will continue to create elevated fire
  danger across the area this afternoon.

- Strong system brings storms, including the potential for
  severe storms, to the area Monday evening into Tuesday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Watervapor satellite loop shows a couple of minor perturbations
moving across western Kansas and another in central Nebraska. Some
higher mid level clouds have developed across southern Nebraska and
far northern Kansas this afternoon. Forecast soundings continue to
show dry air below 600-500 mb layer with around 400-500 J/kg of
elevated cape this afternoon. WIth the very dry low levels any
precipitation will likely evaporate, so have removed any mention of
isolated showers/thunder for late afternoon and early evening and
models suggest modest forcing for ascent to be focused in Nebraska.

The lower boundary layer will remain mixed tonight with gusty winds
subsiding this evening and overnight as a surface trough moves into
the area. Temperatures tonight will remain mild with lows in the mid
to upper 50s.

Sunday will see another very warm day with near record high
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected as deep mixing
occurs up to 600mb and 850mb temperatures of 20 to 22 degrees
Celsius mix down. Light winds will preclude elevated fire danger on
Sunday as afternoon relative humidity drops to around 10 to 25
percent across north central and parts of northeast Kansas.

The western CONUS trough is still forecast to move slowly eastward
into the Rockies on Monday with a southwest flow across the southern
and central Plains. Flow off the Gulf increases on Monday and Monday
night while perturbations eject out of the trough across Kansas.
Better chances for convection (70-80%) are expected overnight Monday
as convection that develops across western Oklahoma and southern
Kansas tracks northeast into the CWA. Some isolated convection could
occur late Monday afternoon and early evening if the capping
inversion is able to be overcome. Increasing forcing for ascent is
forecast Monday night into Tuesday as the mid level trough
progresses into Kansas. Line segments and clusters of storms are
expected with hail and winds the main hazards. With a slower
advancement of the trough the dryline may set up across parts of
northeast and east central Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Additional
isolated severe storms may occur Tuesday afternoon into the early
evening hours. Details will be adjusted with later forecast model
cycles.

The next chance for showers and storms will come Wednesday night
into Thursday as another trough and associated cold front move
across the central Plains. Colder air moving in at the end of next
week will bring low temperatures in the 30s back to the area Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Main focus at terminals is winds and the likelihood for LLWS to
develop aft 05Z. While forecast soundings increase confidence
in a 50 kt low level jet developing from 1500-2kft, there is
uncertainty in the sfc inversion layer and how weak winds
become at the sfc. KMHK and KTOP are more likely to drop below
10 kts given the lower elevation, while winds at KFOE will
remain mixed overnight so have decided to remove LLWS mention.
High pressure moves in tomorrow, veering light winds to the
northeast below 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

South to southwest sustained winds of 15 to 25mph and gusts
of 30 to 40mph will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
Relative humidity values of 15 to 20 percent were observed across
north central Kansas and 25 to 30 percent for across the rest of the
area. Fire partners indicate that even with green-up well underway,
the abnormally warm temperatures along with recent dry conditions
will work to further dry fuels and could lead to more erratic fire
behavior. There is also concern that any fires from yesterday could
reignite. With all of this considered, elevated fire danger will
continue this afternoon and any burning should be postponed.

Sunday features slightly warmer temperatures and relative humidity
values in the 20 to 30 percent range, but winds will be much
lighter, generally 10 to 15mph. A change in wind direction occurs as
a weak surface front moves through with early morning winds from the
southwest becoming northeasterly through the day and eventually
easterly Sunday evening. Light winds should limit fire weather
concerns overall, although shifting winds could make fires more
difficult to control.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Updated at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

            Record High Temps           Forecast High Temps

April 13    95 in Topeka (2006)         89 in Topeka
89 in Concordia (1936)      90 in Concordia

April 14    92 in Topeka (2006)         90 in Topeka
            90 in Concordia (2002)      89 in Concordia

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan/53
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Picha/53