920
FXUS65 KTWC 292041
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
141 PM MST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS... Sunny skies, dry conditions, and above average
temperatures are expected this week. Afternoon breeziness is
forecast most days, especially Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Mid-level heights will continue to rise, ushering
in the beginning of a period of warmer than average high
temperatures. Forecast highs this afternoon are generally in the
80s across the lower elevations and in the 60s and 70s in the
mountains. Highs tomorrow should be several degrees warmer, likely
exceeding 90 in Tucson. On Wednesday and Thursday, broad
troughing will develop over the western CONUS, modestly tightening
a pressure gradient over southern Arizona. The main impact this
trough will have is to nudge temperatures down a few degrees and
create breezy winds both days, with Wednesday afternoon likely
seeing the stronger winds of 15 to 20 mph, and gusts to 30 mph.
Temperatures rise again following this trough going into the
weekend. A dry southern stream shortwave and jet streak should
pass to the south through the weekend, which again may just cause
some breeziness, nearing critical fire weather conditions, each
day with no real signal for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
SKC for the entire TAF period with SFC winds light and variable
through 30/19Z. SFC winds shift to SWLY with speeds up to 12 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures will be 3-7 degrees above normal
into the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less most
of this week, with typical afternoon gustiness due to strong surface
heating. The strongest winds will be on Wednesday, with southwest to
west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Min RH values in
the valleys will generally be in the single digits this week, with
values in the mountains at 12-18 percent.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public...Malarkey
Aviation...Aviation Forecaster
Fire Weather....Fire Weather Forecaster

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