Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 270848
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
148 AM MST Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect a warming trend over the next few days, especially Thursday
through Saturday. Another weather system is expected to impact the
area as early as Saturday night, bringing colder temperatures and
widespread chances for precipitation into early next week. Breezy
to windy conditions will also be associated with this system
beginning Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

After a chilly morning this morning, southeastern Arizona will
undergo a warming trend as mid-level heights rise and a warmer air
mass moves in behind the exiting trough to our east. With the
lingering cool air mass in place highs today will remain a bit
below normal, but around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday with far
more widespread sunshine. Then Thursday into the weekend warmer
mid-level temperatures will be in place while broad ridging turns
into southwest flow.

Through the latter portions of the week, a mid to upper level
trough will deepen over the California coast while flow aloft
becomes southwesterly over southeastern Arizona. The combination
of strong ascent and the southwesterly moisture stream will
provide widespread chances for precipitation, as early as late
Saturday for western areas. There has been some convergence in
model guidance to bring chances into southeastern Arizona by
Sunday, though going off the 500mb cluster analysis there remains
around a 30% chance of precipitation delaying until Monday. With
the dynamic system approaching, surface winds should increase by
Friday and remain breezy to windy each day through at least the
weekend. Temperatures are also expected to fall well below normal
again from Sunday through early next week. As the system exits,
this may also bring another early morning or two of near to below
freezing temperatures at some point early next week for the
historically cooler valleys in Cochise and Graham counties.

&&

.AVIATION...

Becoming SKC today. Wind will generally be light, today under 12
kts and out of the north to northwest, then very light and terrain
driven after 28/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warming trend starts today with highs around 10 degrees warmer
than yesterday. Skies will be clear and winds generally light.
Winds this afternoon will be mostly under 12 mph and out of the
north to northwest. Warmer Thursday into Saturday with a ridge
building overhead. Winds are expected to be increased Friday
through the weekend as a storm system approaches. Colder
temperatures and widespread chances for precipitation as early as
Saturday night are expected with this system, lasting into early
next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for AZZ508-509.

&&

$$

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

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