805
FXUS65 KTWC 080901
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 AM MST Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue into the
weekend. The windiest day will be today, especially east of Tucson
where locally windy conditions are expected. High temperatures will
be near normal for much of this week, then several degrees above
normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An overall benign pattern for southeast Arizona as the
region will be under the influence of dry westerly flow aloft
through the forecast period. A weak disturbance passing well to our
north will enhance the gradient slightly today, allowing for breezy
to locally windy conditions, especially east of Tucson. Sustained
winds this afternoon will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 35
mph. This will result in near critical fire weather conditions east
of Tucson but the winds aren`t quite strong enough or over a large
enough geographical area to warrant the issuance of fire weather
headlines.

The gradient will lessen ever so slightly Thursday into the weekend
but certainly afternoon breezes/gustiness are expected which is
fairly typical climatologically for this time of year. A weak upper
low will be located across N AZ/UT/NV Friday and Saturday and while
that won`t have much impact on our weather it will prevent
temperatures from warming up considerably as highs will be near
normal to a few degrees above normal through Saturday. Once that
system pushes to our east, temperatures will warm slightly early
next week with highs about 3 to 5 degrees above normal.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z.
SKC thru the valid forecast period. SFC winds 12 kts or less thru
08/16Z, then becoming WLY/SWLY and increasing to 14-22 kts and
occasional gusts to around 30 kts, especially east of KTUS including
KDUG/KSAD/KALK. SFC winds then diminish aft 09/03Z becoming 12 kts
or less overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will near be normal through
Saturday, then gradually warming to about 3 to 5 degrees above
normal early next week. For the forecast period, min RHs values will
be in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values
generally in the teens for the mountains.

Breezy afternoon/early evening winds continue today, especially to
the east of Tucson. Winds diminish Thursday into the weekend,
although typical May afternoon gustiness can be expected. Wind
speeds today will again be near critical levels for a couple of
hours during the mid to late afternoon across portions of Cochise,
Graham, and southern Greenlee counties. Additionally, minimum
relative humidities will be in the 9 to 13 percent range. However,
the duration and geographical area/extent of critical wind speeds do
not warrant RFW headlines.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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