445
FXUS63 KUNR 102252
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
452 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through Monday

- Dry Saturday, but chances of showers/storms return Sunday and
  continue into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper ridge is wrapping into the northern plains, between a
split trough. With the surface trough to our east, northwesterly
winds are somewhat breezy across the western SD plains. Under
mostly sunny skies, temperatures are warming into the 60s and
lower 70s.

While there may be some cirrus present, mostly clear skies are
expected tonight. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The western CONUS will continue its warming trend through the
weekend, with warmer air also moving into our CWA as the ridge
shifts eastward. Beautiful weather can be expected Saturday, with
fairly light winds and temperatures in the 70s, beneath sunny
skies. Sunday will start out similarly; however, weak shortwave
energy moving through the ridge will spark some showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Shear and CAPE will be weak, so
not expecting any severe weather.

Warm temperatures will continue Monday, as a trough pushes the
upper ridge axis over the northern plains. Energy associated with
the approaching trough will promote another round of thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, and buoyancy/shear will be enough to support
some strong to severe storms.

Chances for showers/storms will continue through most of next
week, as the trough slowly moves across the central CONUS. With
cooler air pushing into the region Tuesday, expecting the threat
for severe weather to be relatively low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 451 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Diurnal cumulus clouds will dissipate shortly after sunset. VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Helgeson