Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 210248
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1048 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will remain high through early next week associated with a
southerly flow on the backside of high pressure centered well off
the East Coast. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection across the forecast area continues to diminish with
the loss of diurnal heating. Scattered showers remain with a few
rumbles of thunder as remaining outflow boundaries continue to
intersect and enhance cells. Overnight expect the convection to
end during the early morning hours with plenty of residual
cloudiness through daybreak. Cells which cross the area
overnight will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall.
Temperatures overnight will generally be in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A Bermuda high will continue to pump moisture into the region
through mid week. The lack of a strong atmospheric forcing
mechanism should lead to diurnally driven scattered convection
each day. A shortwave upper trough moving New England does not
appear to change the pattern significantly Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A southerly flow aloft will persist into the Memorial Day Weekend.
Medium range models differ quite a bit on the intensity, track, and
timing of a possible tropical system next weekend. The bottom line
regardless of the eventual solution is a continued wet pattern with
near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Little change in airmass or conditions so will lean heavily
towards persistence with the forecast of stratus clouds
restricting cigs to MVFR/IFR later tonight. Abundant moisture
remains in place with a southerly flow off the Atlantic. Fog
could reduce vsbys as well but lower confidence in that
occurring except at AGS/OGB fog prone locations. Improvements
expected by 15z all terminals with heating and mixing taking
place. Winds will remain generally light, less than 10 knots
from a south to southeasterly direction.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Unsettled weather will continue
with periods of late night and morning IFR to MVFR ceilings and
fog and mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
as high moisture remains over the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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