Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 201001
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
601 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking to our west will lift north of the area
tonight. A cold front following the low will cross the region
Sunday morning. High pressure will build in from the west on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature, dew point and wind.
No other changes.

A cold front will move across the region this morning then move
off-shore later this afternoon. Rain is expected this morning
ahead of the front then showers as the front moves through.
Clearing will take place from northwest to southeast behind the
cold front. Strong high pressure is then expected to move in
from the west tonight with clear skies and somewhat colder
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc low located nr Newfoundland and Labrador wl drape a cdfnt on the
international brdr by 12z Mon. Fropa wl occur thru most of CWA Mon
morning with deep mixing resulting in gusty winds, mainly acrs the
north, in the aftn. With dwpts dipping into the 20s acrs the
north and winds gusting btwn 25-30kts in the aftn this wl once
again result in increasing fire risk.

Ridge axis wl settle ovr CWA Mon night and with clr skies and lgt
winds expected temps lkly to drop into the m30s acrs the St. John
Vly. Winds pick up out of the southwest Tue mrng ahd of next wk wv
dropping thru Quebec. May see an isold shower acrs the far north in
the aftn with better chc of showers holding off until late Tue night
as frontal bndry appchs fm Canada. High temps on Tue wl be abv
normal in the 70s except along the coast due to onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cdfnt wl sweep thru the area on Wed. Med range guidance differs
on timing of front, thus hv kept just showers in for the time-
being. If CMC is correct on timing, may see thunder in the aftn
acrs the south. Ern troffiness conts into the early part of the
weekend bfr a more substantial system follows.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR conditions are expected this morning then
VFR conditions all areas this afternoon.

SHORT TERM: VFR Mon into Wed morning. May see restrictions lower
to MVFR across northern terminals Wed mrng in low clouds and
showers as wave skirts across the north. Cold front will move
through on Wed with MVFR showers possible at times. VFR returns
Wed night into Thur. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For
Waves: Wave heights will continue to build this morning (7
feet/7 seconds) as a southerly fetch across the Gulf of Maine
persists. The fetch will be broken up this afternoon as wind
direction veers into the west. Southerly swell will slowly
subside to around 4 feet by Monday Morning. Will use NWPS to
initialize the waves. Total Water Level: Will adjust the Base
Tide Anomaly down to 0.40 feet based on the latest observations
then gradually lower to 0.30 feet later Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: May see marginal SCA conditions Mon afternoon but no
headlines anticipated the remainder of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Mignone/Farrar



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