Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 280327
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1027 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Very little change to the overnight forecast. Did scale back the
amount of fog across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.
Could still see some patchy thicker fog, visibilities less than 1
mile, mostly across the Victoria Crossroads area. Otherwise the
forecast is on track.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 709 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Tonight...Mostly VFR. Much like the previous few overnight
periods, pockets of MVFR stratus and some ground fog is possible
near KVCT and KALI. Running with TEMPO groups for the IFR
restrictions. High confidence.

Memorial Day...VFR. Clear skies and light south-southeast winds
expected. Restrictions lift by late morning. High confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Hot and humid conditions continue as mid level ridge strengthens
over the region with an increase in subsidence. With this, heat
index values continue to make temperatures feel like 100F across
much of South Texas, with locations roughly west of I-37
experiencing temps feeling like 105-109F this late afternoon/early
evening. Similar conditions are expected for Monday.

As Subtropical Storm Alberto continues to approach the
Alabama/Florida border this evening, lower H5 heights extend into
SE Texas where convection has been developing. Lower heights may
nudge into the far northeastern zones toward the Victoria
Crossroads and slowly bring convection farther south along the
coast this late afternoon/evening, but with the H925 and H85 cap
in place along with the stable marine layer in place, this should
be enough to keep rain activity out of the CWA.

For tonight and Monday night, mild conditions continue. Model
soundings look favorable for fog late tonight for the inland
locations, especially from Alice to Victoria. Soundings come in
drier for Monday night which may aide in another night of fog.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

The forecast for the extended period will sound like a broken
record. Hot temperatures and dry conditions are in store for this
week as the upper level ridge over Mexico into the southern
plains holds Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper high will expand by
the end of the week into the weekend. Temperatures are expected to
steady through the week with a possible slight increase toward the
weekend. Afternoon heat index values will range from 105-110 degrees
over the inland coastal plains into the Brush Country each day.
Summer is here! yea!! Onshore flow will be slightly higher on
Tuesday and Wednesday as an area of low pressure remains near the
Texas Panhandle. The gradient is expected to be weaker for the
latter part of the week into the weekend.

Increased swells from Alberto will continue to impact the middle
Texas Gulf coast on Tuesday keeping the rip current risk at moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  96  74  96  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          72  97  73  97  74  /  10   0  10   0   0
Laredo            76 106  76 106  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             72 101  72 101  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          77  91  78  91  80  /   0  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           73 104  73 104  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        74 100  73 100  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       79  91  79  90  81  /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM


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