Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 220051
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
851 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift southeast across the region over the
next couple of days. Developing low pressure will lift northeast
along the eastern seaboard during the middle of next week.
Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the
northeast conus.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Thin broken high cirrus continues to stream overhead at mid evening.
Clouds will be thicker over western and central sections,m while
the thickest cloudiness remains south of the WV/MD panhandles
and Mason Dixon line.

These clouds will keep the frost away from the Laurels. Would
not even be surprised to see some radar returns/virga as a spot
of enhanced lift moves along the PA/MD border later tonight.
However, no need for a mention of sprinkles as it is so dry
below 10kft.

The longer conversation was over frost advy or not in the middle
Susq. Light wind for sure. The clouds are the wild card. The SC
Mtns and Lower Susq should be largely frostless tonight as
either the clouds keep the temps up. Will continue to just
mention frost in fcst wx grids for the middle Susq and
Ridge/Valley region between State College and Harrisburg, but
not take the advy step.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another nice day is on tap for Sunday with highs expected to be
a few degrees warmer than today. The high clouds should slink
southward, but some cu may pop up in the Srn Mtns. Sun PM seems
clear/fair again with even less of a worry for frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will bring central Pa one more day of fair weather
Monday, then conditions will head downhill once again as
low pressure lifts northeast along the east coast. Med range
guidance in fairly good agreement with timing of low, indicating
the bulk of the rain will come Tue PM into Wed AM. Blend of
model qpf indicating the most likely rainfall from this system
will be in the neighborhood of a half inch for most of the
forecast area. Expect the steady rain to taper off by Wed
evening, as surface lifts into New England. However, shortwave
and associated cold front diving southeast from the Grt Lks is
likely to bring another round of showers Wed night into early
Thursday.

12Z NAEFS showing additional shortwave energy carving out a
deepening upper trough over the Grt Lks and northeast states
late in the week into next weekend. Thus, expect a return to
unsettled weather and a downturn in temperatures as we head
into next weekend. Operational model 8h temps even indicate
snow showers are a possibility over the mountains by next
weekend, but have leaned toward the more conservative NAEFS at
this point, which indicates chilly rain showers more likely.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conds to prevail into Monday, as high pressure builds into
the area. No impediments to flight ops are foreseen in the near
term. A slow-moving storm seems like it will affect the area in
the middle to latter part of the week.

Outlook...

Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely PM from S-N.

Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Dangelo/DeVoir


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