Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231942
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Upper system now over the Northern Rockies will be the main driver
of a colder airmass across western and central Kansas Tuesday. The
NAM/WRF pushes the front into the Hays-Garden-Elkhart corridor as
early as mid morning, and then through the entire area by mid
afternoon. Cape is generally weak to mostly non-existent in most
model output, however an 850 mb level warm advection signal with
even very weak MUCAPE in the afternoon should be sufficient for a
few thunderstorms. With expected cloudy/showery sensible weather,
favored the cooler consensus of MOS for most elements, which may
limit highs to the upper 40s/low 50s. High uncertainty exists in
the amount of precipitation from this system with overall lack of
forcing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the western sections
Wednesday morning following the frontal passage Tuesday night.
However, much will depend on the westward expansiveness of the
stratus layer as not a lot of cold air is in place. Much of the
model output at this point keep the area well above freezing.

A second cold front on Thursday is shown by the GFS and ECMWF.
However the better dynamics for precipitation are too far removed
north from our already moisture lacking region. So the northerly
breezy conditions will do little more than help create an elevated
fire risk for parts of the area (western sections most likely) and
hold highs mainly in the 60s through the end of the week.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The rest of Today and Tonight will remain free of any
aviation/terminal impacts, and remain VFR flight category. By
early Tuesday however, the next shortwave will be moving though
the Rockies, with potential for showers, isolated thunderstorms
along a narrow band of differential temperatures advection ahead
of the cold front passage late Tuesday afternoon. IFR ceilings
will be possible at some point Tuesday at most terminal sites in
any showers and storms and are already being reflected in the
TAFs.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cooler temps and subsequent "not as low" daily min relative
humidities will limit the fire weather risk over the next couple
of days. Fire weather risk will be much more elevated by the
weekend, as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s, reducing
afternoon RH, with breezy south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  56  38  59 /  10  60  60  20
GCK  44  49  36  60 /  20  60  50  10
EHA  44  50  37  62 /   0  40  40  10
LBL  45  52  38  61 /  10  60  60  20
HYS  46  54  38  57 /  10  70  30  30
P28  50  64  43  60 /   0  40  60  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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