Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 202106
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
306 PM MDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific low pressure system passing to the north will keep gusty
west to northwest winds going into this evening. Blowing dust will
occur in some areas. Beyond that, a quiet and pleasant weekend
awaits the Borderland, though east winds my be gusty along western
slopes Sunday. High pressure aloft will allow temperatures to
return to above normal next week. Occasional impulses and backdoor
fronts could trigger thunderstorms from time to time from midweek
onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low over the Four Corners proceeds eastward, westerly
surface winds have increased and pushed the low level moisture
well east of the CWA. Some blowing dust has been observed in the
deserts, but not dense.

As the upper low pulls away the gradients will relax and winds
decrease for Saturday. A weak upper ridge will move overhead
Sunday, but any potential warming will be offset by a backdoor
front. A weak impulse passes by Sunday night, but moisture will be
meager so did not put in any pops. The warmest day will be
Tuesday, with temps about 5 degrees or so above normal. Then a
couple of short wave troughs dive into the central plains, each
pushing decent backdoor fronts our way (early Wed and early Fri).
These will have a little more moisture to work with so a few
thunderstorms can be expected at times starting around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...
A large upper low pressure system continues to move eastward
across northern NMEX generating gusty west winds across our area.
00Z-03Z winds 280/25G35KT. Patchy lcl BLDU/Hazy. Isold G40KT east
slopes/passes. 03Z-12Z wind 29025KTS; 12z-24z WIND 300/15G25KTS.
Sky thru the pd SKC - FEW/SCT 100/250. Gradual decreasing turbc
ovr/east of mtns blo 15K FT MSL.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions will prevail in the lowlands today. Lingering
moisture will keep min RH`s today in the mountains today near 20%
but the lowlands will drop near 10%. For the weekend we will
continue to see dry conditions, but winds will be below critical
levels both Saturday and Sunday. For much of next week we will see
drier conditions west of the Rio Grande and higher min RH`s and
even some rain chances east of the river. Winds should not be a
factor for much of next week, the two exceptions being a pair of
back door cold fronts which could give some brief gusty east winds
to western slopes and passes on Sunday and again on next
Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  79  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           45  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              44  76  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              45  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              30  56  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   45  77  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             39  72  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  41  79  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               38  77  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      52  79  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               43  79  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            48  82  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              49  73  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  49  81  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            46  79  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          50  76  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           43  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   43  79  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                46  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               47  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 34  65  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               35  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                33  62  37  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               41  77  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               41  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            29  73  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  36  74  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   31  79  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              38  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 38  75  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  39  78  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 38  78  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          41  78  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              42  73  50  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

01/20 Fausett/Novlan


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