092
FXUS64 KLCH 040851
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A broken line of convection, with a history of producing hail,
continues to traverse the coastal waters of southeast Texas at
this hour. This activity was very poorly accounted for in short
range guidance, wasn`t depicted in previous forecasts and was,
frankly, very unexpected this morning. Still, the seemingly
shallow shortwave responsible appears to be losing steam as it
progresses and a gradual weakening trend should continue with
storms dissipating entirely by mid morning. Inland, another round
of better forecasted light fog continues to develop across the
region this morning where winds have become light or calm. As has
been the case the last couple of morning, this should be fairly
short lived after sunrise.

Some of the upper level moisture presently supporting the ongoing
convection in the gulf is progged to lift inland across the region
today where it will interact with another weak energy wave moving
across the region this afternoon initializing isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. While any
storms that develop will be capable of producing brief heavy
rainfall, precip totals should remain generally under a half inch
and aren`t expected to be enough to exacerbate previous or
ongoing flooding across the region.

A stronger shortwave and another surge of moisture will push
across the region closer to the coast Sunday initializing
scattered to widespread convection as it does so. Forecast QPF
with this disturbance is higher than today with pockets of
locally heavy rainfall having the potential to cause some
localized flooding. This convection should end quickly during the
evening as the shortwave lifts off to the Northeast in what
should be the last of the parade of MCS`s seen across the area the
last several days. Despite no appreciable upper level support,
there will be enough residual moisture across the region Monday to
allow for some isolated diurnally driven afternoon convection
during the afternoon with these quickly ending Monday evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Drier air aloft will finally shut off the spigot Tuesday beginning
a noticeable warming trend with afternoon highs climbing into the
mid to upper 80s and even a few lower 90s across parts of central
Louisiana and interior Southeast Texas Wednesday and Thursday.
Combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices will be
flirting with 100 for the first time since last fall. The good
news is that this looks to be fairly short lived as a frontal
boundary is progged to push through the region Friday advecting
noticeably cooler temperatures back into the region by next
weekend.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

With the exception of KARA, which has some low clouds and ceilings
at MVFR conditions, the terminals are starting out at VFR levels
from high level clouds. Extensive high level cloudiness as the
result of convective blow-off from central/west Texas moving over
the forecast area. This may help reduce cooling and help keep or
delay the very low clouds and patchy fog from forming until after
04/09z. Still expect at least MVFR conditions at all terminals
from the low ceilings and patchy fog.

Not looking at any disturbances moving into the region tonight and
with a drier airmass based on the 04/00z upper air sounding from
KLCH, not expecting any shower activity overnight.

On Saturday, more stable conditions look to be in store. However,
still enough moisture along with daytime heating to allow for
isolated showers or storms to develop and will only mention VCSH
and VCTS for terminals through the day.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to traverse the coastal
waters through the early morning, but should gradually weaken as
they do so with activity coming to an end by mid morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon
with a drier pattern expected Monday through Friday. Light to
moderate onshore flow and seas of three to four feet will prevail
through the day and much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  66  81  66 /  30  20  60  20
LCH  83  70  83  70 /  30  20  50  20
LFT  85  71  85  71 /  30  10  30  20
BPT  83  72  83  71 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66