Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 221129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
729 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

No change in quiet weather pattern. Northwest flow aloft holds
through tonight btwn plains ridging and upper trough bringing
Noreaster to Mid Atlantic and New England. At the sfc, weak high
pressure ridge across the Upper Great Lakes today will be replaced
by ridge extending from stronger high pressure over 1045mb
expanding over Hudson Bay late tonight into Friday. Expect only
some scattered mid to high clouds over mainly north and east
forecast area through tonight. NNW gradient wind out of the high
to the north of Lk Superior will keep Lk Superior shore from
Copper Harbor, Big Bay and Marquette to Grand Marais coolest with
highs near 30 degrees. Should see readings only into the lower 30s
over the rest of the east forecast area, including at Newberry.
Otherwise, the mostly sunny skies and some airmass moderation will
result in temps reaching low 40s scntrl and in the mid to upper
30s elsewhere. Light winds and mostly clear skies tonight should
result in min temps falling toward low end of guidance. Overall,
for temps today and tonight used models that have performed best
the last couple days with the persistent weather pattern and
minimal influence from clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 437 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

Models suggest that a slowly progressive pattern will prevail into
next week with a mid/upper level trough moving into the wrn CONUS
that will bring sw flow and moisture toward the area by Monday into
Tuesday. However, sfc high pressure will dominate the area through
the weekend.

Friday-Sunday, the sfc ridge from Hudson Bay into the western Great
Lakes will only slowly shift to the east and extend from Quebec
through the ern Lakes by late Sunday. In response, the dry ne flow
veering to the southeast will maintain the dry and quiet weather
pattern across Upper Michigan. Highs will range from around 30 north
to the mid and upper 30s south Friday and Saturday. 900 mb temps
around -10C Fri/Sat will moderate to around -6C as sfc readings
climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s Sun. Expect plenty of sunshine
with the very dry airmass which will see PWAT values drop below 0.10

Monday-Tuesday, increasing moisture advection and the approach of
the sfc-850 mb trough and a series of shrtwvs in the sw flow pattern
will bring mainly rain across the cwa by Monday night into Tuesday.
Although there is still some uncertainty with the sfc and low level
temps and impact on pcpn type Monday night, model trends suggest
that the WAA will be strong enough to keep sfc temps above freezing
with max Tw values also supporting liquid pcpn as 850 mb temps
remain aoa 4C.

Wednesday, although previous model runs indicated that a trailing
shortwave could bring another round of pcpn into the area, the 00z
models have trended toward a drier forecast with sfc ridging into
the area.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 728 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

High pressure will remain in control through this TAF issuance,
giving VFR conditions at each TAF site. Strongest winds this
afternoon over 10 kts will be from the north at KSAW.


.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 301 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

High pressure center over the Hudson Bay will continue to extend
southwest across Lake Superior, allowing winds to remain under 20
knots through much of Friday. Late Friday into Saturday, east winds
will increase to 20 to 30 knots, especially across the west half of
the lake, as the surface pressure gradient becomes enhanced due to a
reinforcing area of high pressure digging across northern Ontario.
Towards the latter half of the weekend into early next week,
winds will become south-southeasterly at speeds between 15 and 25

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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