Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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854
FXUS62 KTBW 221401
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1001 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected today as
plenty of moisture continues to stream northward across the
Florida peninsula. Morning soundings and overall pattern look
similar to our Regime 7 thunderstorm climatology (check our web
site at https://www.weather.gov/tbw/Thunderstorm_Climatology for
more details). Have tweaked high temperatures up a degree or two
and made minor adjustments to the rain chances for today, but
overall the forecast is on track with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning, then
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon which could cause some more MVFR/local IFR conditions
along with gusty winds up to around 30 knots. Convection will wind
down this evening with mainly VFR conditions overnight followed by
a repeat of today on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast flow will continue at 15 knots or less for the next few
days with the west coast sea breeze trying to develop each afternoon
through Thursday. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels
through Thursday with the main hazard continuing to be the
scattered showers and thunderstorms with some of the stronger
storms capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally rough
seas. Late in the week winds and seas could increase to near
advisory levels, but this all depends on the evolution and
movement of the area of low pressure moving north out of the
western Caribbean Sea.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  85  72  87  74 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  86  72  87  72 /  60  20  60  30
GIF  84  71  87  71 /  50  20  60  30
SRQ  84  72  86  73 /  50  20  50  20
BKV  85  70  87  70 /  70  30  50  20
SPG  84  75  87  75 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle



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