Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 011349

645 AM MST THU MARCH 1 2018

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook use the term Goodland Service Area to refer to major
rivers located
  - In Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne counties of Colorado
  - In Dundy, Hitchcock, and Red Willow counties of Nebraska
  - In 13 northwest Kansas counties whose southeast boundaries are
    delineated by Greeley, Wichita, Logan, Gove, Graham, and Norton
These river systems include
  - The North and South Forks of the Republican River
  - The Republican River
  - Beaver, Sappa, and Prairie Dog Creeks
  - South and North Forks of the Solomon River
  - The Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers

This outlook is valid from March 1 through March 15, 2018.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued.
Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation. Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook. The vast majority of
flood events in the Goodland service area result from short periods
of higher intensity precipitation, or longer periods of excessive

Since the last outlook, the amount of area in the northwest portion
that had received above normal precipitation, since December 1, has
decreased. Even the locations still above normal are not as much
above normal as before. In comparison to this time last year, more
precipitation has fallen in the form of snow.

Soil moisture conditions are currently running near to a little
below normal, especially in the southern portion of the area.
Currently no snow cover exists over the area. The latest drought
monitor index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) shows that the south
central and west central portion of the area continue under moderate
drought. Much of the remainder of the area is also still
experiencing abnormally dry conditions. However, the northern half
of Yuma county extending through Dundy into the northwest half of
Hitchcock county is currently experiencing no drought.

NOAA`S Climate Prediction Center (CPC)(www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/)
forecasts near to above normal temperatures and near to below normal
precipitation for the period March 8 through March 14.

Reservoir levels currently range between 21 to 53 percent of
conservation pool capacities at Keith Sebelius Lake in northwest
Kansas, Hugh Butler Lake, Enders and Swanson Reservoirs in southwest
Nebraska. The Harry Strunk Reservoir which feeds Medicine Creek in
southwest Nebraska is currently at 81 percent of its conservation

Given no snowpack, near to a little below average soil moisture
conditions, and forecasts indicating near to below normal
precipitation, a below average risk of flooding is designated for
the Goodland service area for the period of March 1 to March 15.



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