Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
540 PM EST Sun Mar 4 2018

Rainfall during the last one to three months has been near to
above normal along the coast and near to below normal inland. As a
result, the area is about evenly split between abnormally dry
conditions and no drought conditions on the latest drought
depiction from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The table below summarizes precipitation amounts at area
observation sites through Saturday March 3rd for various time
scales.

WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.06      3.91     -0.85        78%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      9.88      7.55      2.33       131%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     13.74     11.06      2.68       124%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     24.99     25.34     -0.35        99%
                ONE YEAR      66.88     57.61      9.27       116%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     75.39     68.09      7.30       111%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.86      3.17     -1.31        59%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      3.76      6.05     -2.29        62%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.70      8.78     -1.08        88%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     15.62     18.64     -3.02        84%
                ONE YEAR      43.67     43.52      0.15       100%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     50.53     51.78     -1.25        98%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      1.99      3.66     -1.67        54%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      6.21      7.22     -1.01        86%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      9.65     10.56     -0.91        91%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     19.40     23.09     -3.69        84%
                ONE YEAR      51.69     52.01     -0.32        99%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     56.78     61.98     -5.20        92%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      2.22      3.15     -0.93        70%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      4.39      6.27     -1.88        70%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      8.87      9.22     -0.35        96%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     15.42     18.36     -2.94        84%
                ONE YEAR      41.88     42.91     -1.03        98%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     49.65     51.69     -2.04        96%

Streamflow values across the area are generally at near to
slightly below normal values for this time of year and upstream
reservoir levels are mainly near to above normal. Soil moisture
conditions are at normal to slightly below normal levels.

During the next seven days, rain is expected Tuesday and Tuesday
night and again Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, the next
week is expected to dry. Despite that, rainfall the next seven
days is expected to be near to above normal.  The eight to
fourteen day outlook calls for below normal rainfall. The outlook
for the remainder of March and for March through May from the
Climate Prediction Center calls for equal chances of above normal,
normal, and below normal rainfall.

In consideration of the above factors, this outlook calls for a
normal to slightly below normal risk of flooding through April.

The next scheduled Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by
March 16th.

$$

RAN



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