Suppression Forecast
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699
FNUS74 KEPZ 240336
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Indian Peaks Rx Unit 13...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
936 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2200 MDT on May 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwest flow will continue over the burn site through Thursday
evening, before high pressure builds northward over New Mexico
and the southern rockies on Friday.  This will return warmer weather
to the burn site, with breezy southwest winds each afternoon
Thursday and Friday.  The orientation of valleys adjacent to the fire,
will be parallel to the direction of afternoon winds.  As a result,
channeling of these winds through the valleys will contribute
to afternoon gusts over 20 mph both days.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....82-83.
Min humidity........7-8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    in the afternoon to around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL increasing to 12700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (115400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (192000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      5      5      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............51     59     74     79     82     83
RH..............28     19     11     10     8      8
20 ft wind......W 5    W 7    SW 10  S 13   S 14   SW 14
20 ft wind gust.10     15     20     25     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....8700   8700   8700   12700  12700  12700
Transport wind..W 5    SW 5   S 9    S 17   S 18   SW 17
Haines index....4      4      4      5      6      6
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....44-47.
Max humidity........24-27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 6800 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (136700 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (68800 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........2         2         0         0
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............81        69        58        52
RH..............8         11        15        18
20 FT wind......SW 15G30  SW 14G30  W 11G20   W 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....10500     10500     6800      6800
Transport wind..SW 15     SW 13     SW 12     SW 10
Haines index....6         6         6         6
Vent Rate.......VYGD      VYGD      GOOD      GOOD

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....85-86.
Min humidity........5 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL decreasing to 1800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........3            3            3
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............49           73           81
RH..............20           11           6
20 FT wind......NW 6G15      SW 7G15      SW 9G20
Mix hgt (ft)....3900         3900         1800
Transport wind..SW 9         SW 9         SW 8
Haines index....6            5            5
Vent Rate.......POOR         POOR         POOR

$$
Forecaster...TRIPOLI
Requested by...Colten Moor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810403.7/EPZ
.EMAIL lcarver@fs.fed.us



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