Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 042053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042053
ILZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-042230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sat May 04 2024
Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...northern Arkansas...and
southern-east-central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042053Z - 042230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from eastern Oklahoma across northern Arkansas and into
Misosuri.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along and ahead
of a cold front from eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and
into Missouri. The airmass ahead of this cold front is moderately
unstable with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Effective shear is
relatively weak (<30 knots per SPC mesoanalysis), but VWPs closer to
the cold front (INX and SGF) are sampling greater 0-6 km shear
between 25 and 30 knots. This, in addition to low-level convergence,
will support more robust updrafts near the cold front. A few strong
to isolated severe storms will be possible this afternoon. However,
height rises and broad synoptic scale subsidence should preclude a
more organized severe weather threat and the need for a watch.
..Bentley/Smith.. 05/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34759676 36299458 37879291 38589225 38999092 38509013
35279027 34599085 34189229 34139574 34229611 34759676